TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 09日 / Composite Index 09/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 09日
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开28%，而富时综合指数始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指进一步下跌，继续维持一下跌的趋势里。如图中箭头A所示，综指跌破1257点的费氏线，所以综指当前的支持水平落在1237点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线 。

无论如何，综指跌破1257点的幅度不大，所以若综指能在短期内回弹，那综指仍然有望获得1257点的扶持，反之若综指失去了1257点的扶持后，综指将有下探1237点（38.2%的费线回归）的可能。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量微跌2.6%，所以成交量依然低迷，并且远远的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这意味着整体市场目前正处于一个淡静的格局，这也是综指在下跌或调整巩固时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌至30%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势继续走软，接下来若随机指标跌破30%的水平，那技术上综指的短期走势将形成一个跌势中，直到随机指标重新上扬突破30%为止。

总的来说，综指整体走势继续的转弱，若综指不能在短期内重返1257点的水平以上，那综指下探的可能浓厚，并且形成一个下跌的趋势。综指将继续维持这转弱的格局，直到随机指标能上扬突破30%，随后若综指能上扬突破布林中频带，那综指才有机会完全避开形成下跌的趋势。


Composite Index 09/12/2009
As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands expanded 28%, with the FBM KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the KLCI ended lower, while the bearish biased outlook remain intact. As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks below the 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and therefore, the next support is at 1237 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Since the KLCI is only breaking the 1257 FR by margin, it is still likely that the KLCI would be supported by the 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Nonetheless, should the KLCI continue to fall, it would be testing its next downside target which is 1237 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement (38.2% Retracement).

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 2.6%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this shows that the overall market participation is still very low, as investors are still staying on the sidelines. With volume so weak, the KLCI is less likely to pick some strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking the 30% level, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is turning weak. If the Stochastic should stay below 30% level, the short term outlook for the KLCI shall remains bearish biased.

In short, the KLCI shows signs of turn weak, and if the KLCI should really break below the 1257 level, it would form a downtrend. Meanwhile, the bearish biased movement remains intact, unless the Stochastic should break above 30% level, and the KLCI breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, then only the KLCI would regain some strength and avoid the downtrend formation.