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Saturday, December 12, 2009

FBM KLCI Consolidates; 1257 Support Key Index

Share prices on the Malaysia stock exchange closed flat on lower volume Friday despite most of the regional bourses settling higher.

The FBM KLCI added 0.10 points or 0.01% to 1,260.00 points. The index opened 0.34 of a point higher at 1,260.24 points and traded between 1,257.95 and 1,262.64 points during the day, representing a trading band of only 4.69 points.

Market breadth was however negative with losers narrowly edging gainers 291 to 289 on a lower volume of 529 million shares worth RM750 million against 572 million shares valued at RM818 million Thursday.

Of the 30 components of KLCI, 14 closed in the positive territory, 11 ended lower while the remaining five settled unchanged. Volume for the component stock was 62 million shares worth RM396 million.

For the week, the KLCI however lost 10.20 points or 0.80% from the previous Friday’s closing of 1,270.20 points.

Following are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI's technical indicators:

Moving Averages: The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. It stayed below its 10-, 20- and 30-day moving averages.
Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed below the support of its neutral reference line.
On Balance Volume: Its short-term OBV trend stayed below the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.
Relative Strength Index: Its 14-day RSI stood at the 47.20 per cent level yesterday.

Technical Outlook
The FBM KLCI's technical pullback hit its intra-week low of 1,255.76 on Wednesday, staging a re-test of this column's envisaged support zone (1,233 to 1,267 levels).

The FBM KLCI's weekly chart continued to stay below the support of its intermediate-term uptrend (See FBM KLCI's weekly chart - A3:A4) at the market close on Thursday. It continued to stay above the neckline (A1:A2) of its head-and-shoulders pattern formation.

Chartwise, the FBM KLCI's daily trend continued to stay below the lower support (See FBM KLCI's daily chart - B3:B4) of its intermediate-term uptrend channel (B3:B4 and B5:B6) on Thursday. Also, the FBM KLCI continued to stay above the neckline (B1:B2) of its head-and-shoulders pattern formation.

The FBM KLCI's daily and weekly fast MACDs (moving average convergence divergence) stayed below their respective slow MACDs yesterday. Its monthly fast MACD continued to stay above its monthly slow MACD.

The FBM KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at 47.20 per cent level yesterday. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI stayed at 68.85 and 63.29 per cent levels respectively.

Last week, this column commented that the local bourse was likely to remain in its consolidation mode for another week on lack of fresh market leads on the local front. It did. The FBM KLCI consolidated within a trading range of 15.48 points.

The FBM KLCI is likely to stage a follow-through consolidation for another trading week. A decisive breach of its critical support of 1,250 will signal a more meaningful technical pullback is in the offing.

Next week, the FBM KLCI's envisaged resistance zone hovers at the 1,264 to 1,298 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 1,222 to 1,256 levels.

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