TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 21/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 21日

Composite Index 21/12/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI ended 11.31 points or 0.9% lower on Monday, to close at 1255.66 points. Currently, the KLCI is testing the 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and if the KLCI should break below this level, the next support for the KLCI will be at 1237 or 38.2% retracement line. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1288 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded only 2%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Since the KLCI is now below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is now on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 31%, while volume is still further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market sentiment is still weak, as participation of investors is low. It is important to note that if the KLCI should break above any resistance, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important confirmation. However, during a decline, volume does not have to be above the 40-day VMA level to confirm a downtrend. If volume should increased substantially during a decline, it would be a signal suggesting an increased of selling pressure.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 30% level, and re-entered the short term bearish region. If the Stochastic should remain below 30% level, the market movement for the short term shall remains bearish biased.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still under consolidation, while the market is still lack of fresh leads. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside movement is expected for the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 12月 21日
以1255.66点闭市。综指目前处于1256.69点的费氏线水平，所以若接下来综指未能在此水平扶持而回弹，那综指将有下探1237点的38.2%费氏线的风险，综指当前的阻力水平则维持在1288点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）稍微打开2%，再加上综指跌破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态支持先，这显示综指有出现转弱的走势，这意味着接下来若布林频带明显的打开将是综指形成跌势的讯号。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量急降31%，这使到成交量远远的离开40天成交量平均值（VMA）的水平，这显示市场仍然淡静，以技术而言，若综指形成跌势的话，是不须要成交量增加来确认的，所以成交量低于40天平均值也意味着综指有转弱的可能，实际上若综指在下跌时成交量放大的话，那将是综指跌势凌厉的讯号。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度跌破30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势转弱；由于布林频带并未明显的打开，所以随机指标显示的综指的趋势只属于一个短期的趋势，并不能完全代表综指整体的趋势；另一方面，随机指标跌势零的水平，这表示综指的短期走势超卖，接下来综指有出现技术反弹的可能。

总的来说，综指目前处于一个调整巩固的格局，综指在缺乏新的指引下，所以走势仍然不明朗。若布林频带接下来进一步的打开，那综指将有形成跌势的可能，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。