TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 01/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 01日

Composite Index 01/12/2009

After forming a long-shadowed candlestick on Monday, the KLCI continued its technical rebound on Tuesday 01 Dec 09, gaining 7.6 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI is now still below the L1 uptrend line, and this suggests that the KLCI has not regained its strength. In addition, the L1 line over-laps with the Bollinger Middle Band, which suggests that it is an important resistance for the KLCI. Other than that the 1288 and 1300 level are still the resistance for the KLCI while the support is now at 1257 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands only expanded 5%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands might be contracting soon. If the KLCI could break above the Bollinger Middle Band, it is likely that the current negative trend might come to an end, and may be even a chance to resume its previous uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 24.4%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is now relatively quiet, which is quiet normal as investors are being cautious amid the uncertainties of the market condition. Generally, with volume below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to stay in consolidation.

As circled at C, the Stochastic continue to rebound, suggesting that the KLCI short term has regain some lost ground. If the Stochastic should break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI, suggesting that the KLCI would resume its bullish biased movement.

In short, the KLCI rebounded after a panic selling on Monday. However, despite the rebound, the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side until a valid break out above the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 12月 01日

富时综合指数在周一形成了长影线（Long Shadow）阴阳烛后，周二继续回弹，按日上扬7.6点。如图中箭头A所示，综指目前仍然处于L1上升趋势线以下，这意味着综指仍然有转弱的风险，再加上L1与布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）重叠，所以综指预料将在此遇到一定的阻力，除此之外，1288点至1300点也将是综指的阻力水平，支持水平则落在1257点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度迅速减至5%，这表示综指跌破布林中频带形成的下跌趋势有扳回的迹象，若综指接下来能成功的上扬突破布林中频带，那综指的跌势将有望提早结束，重新回到上扬的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少24.4%，所以成交量重新跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示整体市场再度的淡静下来，这是因为投资者再度静观其变，等待市场进一步的明朗化所致。无论如何，成交量低于40天的平均值通常都是表示综指倾向于调整或横摆巩固。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）进一步上扬，这表示综指的短期走势继续的从跌势中恢复过来，若随机指标能上扬突破70%的话，那综指短期走势将有望再度回到上扬的格局。

总的来说，综指在经过了周一的一轮惊慌抛售后，股价纷纷回弹，这表示综指有望从跌势中恢复过来，无论如何，综指仍然需要先上扬突破布林中频带，那综指才能确认避免进入跌势，出现巩固或上扬的趋势。