TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 23日 / Composite Index 23/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 23日
富时综合指数微扬0.11点，惟再度在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）遇阻（参考箭头A），这意味着布林中频带继续的成为综指接下来的主要阻力水平，综指的支持水平则维持在1257点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄1%，这显示综指仍然维持一个横摆巩固的格局。通常综指将持续盘整，直到布林频带再度打开为止，届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将是综指的新趋势的方向。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步下退，目前成交量只达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平的一半，这表示市场整体上处于一个淡静的格局，所以综指的波动率也相应的减低，呈横摆的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）精确的在30%的水平遇阻，这显示综指的短期走势仍然维持在一个偏弱的格局。以技术而言，综指将继续维持趋软的走势，直到随机指标能成功上扬突破30%的水平为止。

布林频带仍然维持收窄的格局，这表示综指目前正酝酿着一个新的趋势，通常此新趋势将在布林频带开始明显的打开时才出现，届时综指的新趋势将由综指处于布林中频带的位置为止来决定：若综指处于布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有望再度上扬，反之若综指处于布林中频带以下，综指将有形成跌势的风险。

Composite Index 23/12/2009
The KLCI ended marginally higher on Wednesday, while still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, as indicated by A. This suggests that the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, while the support is still at 1257 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, suggesting that the KLCI is still trading in a consolidation mood, and the consolidation shall carry on until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Then, the relative position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band shall determine the new movement for the KLCI when the Bollinger Bands expands.

As indicated by B, total market volume continues to fall, with volume only reaching half of the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is indeed really quiet, as market sentiment is still weak.

As circled at C, the Stochastic stopped climbing at 30% level, failing to break above the short term bearish region. Therefore, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak. Technically speaking, the Stochastic has to break above the 30% level, to signal a beginning of a technical rebound for the KLCI.

With the Bollinger Bands still contracting, the KLCI consolidation continues while also preparing for a new movement. Therefore, we shall have to wait for the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands to signal the beginning of a new movement. In short, in order to regain some strength, the KLCI has to first break above the Bollinger Middle Band, or else, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side.