TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 11日 / Composite Index 11/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 11日
区域股市出现回弹的迹象，不过富时综合指数再度与外围市场脱节，综指微扬0.10点，以1260点闭市。如图中箭头A所示，1257点继续的成为综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄1%，这是综指横摆巩固的讯号，若布林频带持续出现收窄的话，那综指的会维持在横摆的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步萎缩7.5%，所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这与综指横摆巩固及淡静的走势一致。一般上，成交量将继续处于一个低迷的格局，直到综指摆脱横摆巩固为止。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离（MACD）缓缓下跌，目前来到零轴的水平，若平均乖离跌破零轴进入负值区域的话，那综指的中长期走势将出现转弱的讯号，这也意味着平均乖离自3月末上扬突破零轴来的中长期上扬讯号将面对严峻的考验。

总的来说，综指在布林频带开始收窄的情形下横摆巩固，由于综指仍然获得1257点的，所以综指并未完全转弱。接下来若平均乖离能回弹，那综指将有望避开形成中长期的跌势，不过综指的新走势则必须等到布林频带重新打开，再以综指处于布林中频带的位置来决定。

Composite Index 11/12/2009
Despite the rebound of regional market, the FBM KLCI did not follow suit, ending only 0.1 points higher, to close at 1260 points. As indicated by A, the 1257 level is still the support for the KLCI while the resistance is at 1288 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, suggesting that the KLCI might be consolidating. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to contract, the KLCI is likely to move sideways, until the Bollinger Bands should re-expands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 7.5%, while still staying below the 40-day VMA level. In short, the market is relatively quiet, and the KLCI is not likely to pick up any strength with such low volume.

As circle at C, the MACD is gradually falling, while testing the zero line. If the MACD should break below the zero line, it would means that the mid to longer term movement of the KLCI is turning weak.
In conclusion, the KLCI is still showing sign of weakness, but it has not confirmed a formation of a downtrend yet for the 1257 support remains intact. Nonetheless, if the MACD line should rebound, the KLCI is likely to steer away from a downtrend formation. But still, to have a new movement for the KLCI, the Bollinger Bands has to re-expand again, and the new direction is determined by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.