TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 03/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 03日

Composite Index 03/12/2009
Despite strong rebound across the Asian Pacific markets, the KLCI only managed to gain 1.2 points. Fortunately, the KLCI is still staying above the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediate outlook is slightly improved. Nonetheless, the Bollinger Bands is still contracting (-14%), suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still testing the L1 uptrend line, and it is still too closed to call if the KLCI would resume the uptrend. Nevertheless, support for the KLCI is at 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement followed by the 1300 psychological level.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 24.7%, and the volume is still further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is lightly participated, as investors are being cautious, while staying on the sidelines amid market uncertainty. Generally, a lower volume is the typical characteristic of a consolidating market.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now above the 70% level, entering the short term bullish territory. However, it is important to know that the Stochastic is a Secondary indicators and its signals have to be confirmed by the Primary indicator. Generally, the significance of its signals is reduced when the Bollinger Bands contracts.

With the KLCI now above the Bollinger Middle Band, the outlook of the KLCI has been lifted slightly, with some positive signal from the Stochastic. Still, we have to wait for the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands with the KLCI staying above the Bollinger Middle Band to confirm the bullish signal. If the KLCI should failed to maintain above the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands expands, it would be a bearish signal, otherwise.

综合指数 2009年 12月 03日
虽然亚太区域股市纷纷报捷，不过富时综合指数却不为所动，只微扬1.2点，所幸的是综指仍然能维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，这表示综指有微弱的偏强走势，无论如何，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）目前是处于一个收窄（-14%），这显示综指整体上是属于一个横摆巩固的格局。

如图所示，综指目前处于L1上升趋势线的水平，所以综指的能否在L1上获得扶持还是不太明朗或肯定的。综指当前的支持水平依然落在1257点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1288点及1300点。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量萎缩24.7%，所以成交量仍然维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下，这是综指步入横摆巩固所致的。由于成交量低迷，所以马股整体的市场也显得淡静，通常这都是综指调整巩固时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬突破70%的水平，这是综指短期转强的迹象，换句话说，综指的短期走势有继续走高的趋势，无论如何，随机指标只是短期补助指标，再加上布林频带收窄，所以随机指标发出短期的讯号可能只会令综指上扬数点而已。

由于综指已经返回布林中频带以上了，而随机指标则继续暗示综指有短期向上的趋势，所以只要综指能成功的保持在布林中频带以上，那当布林频带开始打开的话，综指将有望再度出现上扬的趋势；反之若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指将有进一步走低的风险。