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Friday, December 18, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 17日 / Composite Index 17/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 17日
富时综合指数继续窄幅波动,按日下滑2.06点,综指当前的支持水平依然维持在1257点的23.6%费氏线,阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。


如图中箭头A所示,综指目前依然在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)上,这表示综指虽然处于盘整格局,不过综指目前还是稍微趋向上扬的格局,因为只要布林频带接下来开始打开,那综指将出现一个上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量进一步增加5.6%,开始缓缓的迈向40天成交量平均值(VMA)的水平,若在综指开始上扬时,成交量能成功的达到40天平均值的话,那综指将有望出现一个有利的上扬趋势。无论如何,目前成交量低于40天平均值显示投资者还是以旁观者居多,市场整体上需要进一步的改善才能吸引投资者回笼。


如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)回软至70%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势稍微回软,无论如何,只要随机指标短期内回弹,并且维持在70%以上的话,那综指的短期走势将有望继续转强,直到随机指标跌破30%为止。

总的来说,综指目前仍然处于一个盘整的格局,无论如何,综指目前已经处于布林中频带以上了,所以综指有一定的优势,因为当市场出现年底橱窗粉刷获得时,布林频带将有望开始明显的打开,那综指将有望再度出现上扬的趋势,上探1288点的水平。

Composite Index 17/12/2009
On Thursday, the FBM KLCI was still trading at narrow range, losing 2.06 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 1257 while the resistance is still at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by A, the KLCI managed to stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, with the immediate outlook slightly on the positive side, while still consolidating. The KLCI has not shown any bullish signal yet, for the Bollinger Bands is still contracting.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 5.6%, while the volume is gradually getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. Generally, if volume should reach the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is likely to improve. But until then, the overall market participation is relatively still low, as investors are still on the sidelines.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated to the 70% level, which is normal for the KLCI has retreated on Thursday. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the short term bullish signal for the KLCI shall remain intact.

In general, the KLCI is still consolidating with some positive biased. As we are approaching to the year end, possible window dressing effect is likely to keep the KLCI staying on the positive region. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands should expand again, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI to test the 1288 level.

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