TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 04日 / Composite Index 04/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 04日

由于缺乏新的指引，富时综合指数微跌2.15点，惟综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持（参考箭头A），这表示布林中频带将继续成为综指接下来支持线，综指另一道的支持线则落在1257点的费氏线，阻力水平则仍然维持在1288点及1300点。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）继续收窄，所以综指目前继续属于一个横摆巩固的格局，通常综指将继续维持在这盘整的格局，直到布林频带再度打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量只微增2.2%，所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下，这交投低迷的情形在综指进行盘整时是正常的，这是因为投资者在市场仍然不明朗化前都选择离场观望。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微回软，不过随机指标仍然成功的保持在70%以上，这意味着综指周五微跌，不过整体上，综指的短期走势仍然趋强，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，虽然综指未能返回L1趋势线上，不过布林频带的收窄表示综指正在酝酿着一个新的走势，惟此新趋势只在布林频带重新打开时才会浮现，届时综指的新走势将取决于综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。

Composite Index 04/12/2009

The KLCI fell 2.15 points on Friday, amid the absence of some fresh leads, while supported by the Bollinger Middle Band and the 1270 point mark, as indicated by A. This suggests that the Bollinger Middle Band and the 1270 are still serving as the dynamic supports for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the 1257 Fibonacci Retracement is the next follow up support for the KLCI, while the resistance is at 1288 and 1300 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands is still contracting, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI continues.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased only 2.2%, and as a result, the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market overall is still relatively quiet. Nonetheless, it is quite normal to have lower market activities as the KLCI is consolidating, investors are mostly staying on the sidelines.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated slightly, but still managed to stay above 70% level. Therefore, the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the bullish side, unless the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

In conclusion, although the KLCI has not returned to above the L1 uptrend line, it is actually preparing for a new movement, as the Bollinger Bands contracts. However, the direction of the new movement will only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands re-expands, and the relative position of the KLCI against the Bollinger Middle Band shall determine the direction of the new movement.