TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 16/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 16日

Composite Index 16/12/2009
On Wednesday, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band in the morning session, but it managed to rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, as indicated by A, and the KLCI only losing 1.78 points at the close. Support for the KLCI remains at 1257 while the resistance is still found at 1288.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Middle Band is now serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI, and KLCI is likely to be supported by the Bollinger Middle Band. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 2%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands is gradually expanding. If the Bollinger Bands should expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI, and the upside movement of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands contracts again.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 24%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that despite some improvement of the market participation, the overall market is still quiet as investors are still being very cautious. Generally, total market volume has to stay above the 40-day VMA level in order for the market to stay bullish.

As circled at C, the MACD line rebounded without breaking below the zero level, this suggest that the long term movement of the KLCI is still holding up. If the MACD line should continue rising, it suggests that the long term positive movement of the KLCI is likely to remain intact.

In short, the KLCI managed to stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, which is an important level. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is likely to pick up some strength.
综合指数 2009年 12月 16日
富时综合指数早盘一度下调至布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的水平，惟综指随后在买盘的扶持下回弹（参考箭头A），收窄跌幅，综指按日微跌1.78点。综指当前的支持水平仍然维持在1257点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林中频带成为综指当前的动态支持水平，所以接下来综指将有望在布林中频带继续获得扶持。另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度由0%转为2%，有开始出现打开的迹象，所以接下来若布林频带开始明显的打开，而综指又能继续获得布林中频带的扶持，综指将有望出现上扬的趋势，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加24%，惟还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示马股的交投有所改善，不过还是未完全步出淡静的格局；通常成交量是必须达到40天成交量移动平均线，那综指稳健转强的机会才会高。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离（MACD）在零轴上回弹，成功的守住正值区域，这表示综指的中长期走势仍然维持在偏强的格局，接下来若平均乖离继续上扬，那综指将有望再度出现上扬的走势，反之若平均乖离跌破零轴，那综指的中场期走势则有转弱的风险。

总的来说，综指成功的保住布林中频带这道重要的动态支持线，所以接下来若布林频带开始明显打开的话，综指将有望继续转强，形成一个上扬的趋势。