TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 29日 / Composite Index 29/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 29日
富时综合指数进一步上扬2.49点，以1275.22点闭市，这使到布林频带（Bollinger　Bands）继续的打开（+14%）。如图中箭头A所示，由于综指目前已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上了，所以只要布林频带继续打开，那综指将有望一直转强，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。

如图所示，综指在1257点的费氏线获得扶持后开始上扬，目前正开始上扬，若综指能上扬突破1288点的费氏线，综指将有望上探1300点的心理关口。综指当前的支持水平落在1257点的费氏线及布林中频带的动态支持线，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步增加，虽然成交量仍然未达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，不过只要成交量能持续增长，那综指转强的趋势将有望维持下去，进而形成一个新的涨势。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）达到100%，这表示综指的短期走势不止已经处于上扬的格局中，并且可能出现短期过热的情形，这是综指有技术调整的暗示，无论如何只要随机指标能一直维持在70%以上的话，那综指的短期涨势将有望持续下去，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，虽然目前只有短期指标发出综指处于转强的格局，接下来只要布林频带继续的打开，而综指又能维持在布林中频带以上的话，若再加上获得成交量达到40天平均值的确认，那综指将能完全形成一个上扬的趋势。

Composite Index 29/12/2009
On Tuesday, the FBM KLCI gained another 2.49 points, to close at 1275.22 points while the Bollinger Bands expanded 14%. As indicated by A, the KLCI is now above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate outlook for the KLCI is on the positive side. Therefore, should the Bollinger Bands continue to expand, more upside movement for the KLCI is likely, until the Bollinger Bands should contract again.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI regain some strength after rebounded from the 1257 Fibonacci Retracement, and if the KLCI could break above 1288 level, the next resistance would be at the 1300 psychological level. Support for the KLCI is still at 1257 while the immediate resistance is at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 25.4%, although it has not reached the 40-day VMA level. The increased of market volume is a good sign as it shows that the market participation is now increasing, which implies an improvement of the market sentiment as well as confidence.

As circled at C, the Stochastic touched 100%, which suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is in deed strong, but slightly over-heated. But still, provided that the Stochastic could maintain its position above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

In conclusion, the KLCI short term is improving, and if the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand while the KLCI staying above the Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with the continue increased of volume, the upside movement of the KLCI is likely to carry on.

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