TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 31日 / Composite Index 31/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 31日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数盘中一度下滑至布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），惟综指随后精确的在布林中频带获得扶持而回弹，综指最终以1272.78点结束2009年的交易，全年上扬了396.03点或45.2%。

由于综指成功的守住布林中频带，这使到投资者对布林中频带的扶持力量信心大增，所以布林中频带继续的成为综指接下来的动态支持线，综指当前的阻力水平有1288点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1257点的23.6%费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量虽然稍微增加2.7%，不过成交量却渐渐的接近40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是因为40天的移动平均线也同时的向下滑落，这加快了成交量达到40天平均值的速度，若综指在2010年1月能出现传统的元月效应，那成交量达到40天的平均值将大大的增加综指能上扬的幅度。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离（MACD）在零轴获得扶持后回弹，并且上扬突破了触发线（Trigger），这显示综指的中长期有开始转强的迹象，直到平均乖离再度跌破触发线为止。

总的来说，综指在布林中频带上获得扶持，这是一个意义重大的技术讯号，因为这代表投资者仍然对综指的后市有信心，接下来若布林频带（Bollinger Bands）能开始明显的打开，那综指将有望开始期待已久的元月涨潮。

Composite Index 31/12/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band on Thursday, but it managed to rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, to close at 1272.78 points, closing the last trading day of the year 2009 with a yearly gain of 396.03 points or 45.2%.

Since the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.7%, but still it is getting closer to the 40-day VMA level, as the 40-day VMA level is gradually falling. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should have the Chinese New Year effect with volume breaking above the 40-day VMA level, it would certainly improve the market sentiment at a whole.

As circled at C, the MACD rebounded at the zero level and also breaking above the trigger line. This suggests that the KLCI mid to longer term is regaining some strength. This positive signal for the KLCI shall remain intact until the MACD line should break below the trigger line.

In conclusion, the KLCI support at the Bollinger Middle Band is an important signal, as it shows that the immediate outlook is still on the positive side. If the Bollinger Bands should expand again with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside room is expected.

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