TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 14日 / Composite Index 14/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 14日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数精确的在1257点的支持水平反弹，综指更上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），以1265.45点闭市，综指当前的支持水平依然是1257点，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）收窄的幅度为6%（-6%），这表示综指目前在从跌势中恢复过来。综指目前来到布林中频带的水平，所以综指接下来将面对布林中频带的动态阻力，换句话说，若综指能上扬突破布林中频带，那综指的走势将有望出现转强的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量微跌2.6%，所以成交量始终未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这在综指调整巩固时是正常的，不过接下来若综指要转强的话，成交量就得增加至40天成交量平均值，那综指上扬的趋势才能更持久。

如图中C圈所示， 随机指标（Stochastic）上扬突破50%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势有转强的迹象，接下来若随机指标上扬突破70%的话，综指将有望进入短期上扬的趋势内。

综指在1257点的费氏线回弹后显示综指有望出现转强的走势，接下来若综指能突破布林中频带，再加上布林频带开始打开的话，那综指将形成一个上扬的趋势，出现年终的橱窗粉刷活动。在此情形出现时，若成交量能增加至40天平均值表示投资者回笼，这将有助于综指走高，并且上探1288点的阻力水平。
Composite Index 14/12/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded precisely from the 1257 Fibonacci Retracement, and the KLCI is now testing the Bollinger Middle Band, closing at 1265.45 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1288.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 6%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating, while recovering from its losses. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance that the KLCI might regain some strength.

As indicated by B, total market volume reduced 2.6%, while still further below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that despite the rebound, overall market participation is still low. Nonetheless, this is rather normal for the KLCI is basically consolidating. If the KLCI should attempt to resume its uptrend, volume above the 40-day VMA level is a must, or else the rally is less affirmed.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now breaking above 50% level, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is slightly improved. If the Stochastic should break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

The rebound at 1257 level, has lifted the market outlook slightly, and the next target for the KLCI is the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band with the Bollinger Bands expanding, we shall expect to see some year-end window dressing effect. Also, if volume should increased to above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI might test the 1288 level.

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