TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 24/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 24日

Composite Index 24/12/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band on Thursday, but still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still weak while the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance remains intact. Other than the Bollinger Middle Band, the 1288 remains the resistance for the KLCI while the support is still at 1257 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Middle Band moved up slightly, and this may suggest that some slight improvement for the KLCI movement. Nevertheless, the KLCI has to first break above the Bollinger Middle Band, with the Bollinger Bands expanding, then only the KLCI would have a chance to regain some strength.

As indicated by B, total market volume further declined, while further below the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the market participation is low, and the market sentiment is also weak, as the KLCI is still trendless.
As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 30% level, as the KLCI technically rebounded. Therefore, it is breaking away from the short term bearish region. If the Stochastic should break above 70% and stay above that level, the short term movement for the KLCI would pickup some momentum.

After consolidating for a period of time, the KLCI is showing a slim chance of breaking away from the weakening movement. If the KLCI should successfully breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would have a better chance to regain some ground.

Nonetheless, the positive signal should be confirmed by the expansion of the Bollinger Bands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 12月 24日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的阻力，惟综指始终在布林中频带遇阻，未能成功突破此动态阻力线，这意味着综指并未确认转强的讯号。综指当前的阻力水平除了布林中频带外，就是1288点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1257点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林中频带稍微翘起，这暗示综指有止跌转强的迹象，无论如何，综指是必须先上扬突破布林中频带，同时再加上布林频带开始打开，那综指才有望形成一个上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量继续下滑，这是市场交投继续低迷所致，所以整体综指维持在一个横摆巩固的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）成功上扬突破30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势摆脱了下跌的趋势，接下来若随机指标能继续上扬，并进入70%以上的话，那综指的短期走势将有望形成一个上扬的趋势。

综指在盘整了一度日子后，有开始摆脱下跌的迹象，接下来若综指能上扬突破布林中频带，那综指继续转强的机会浓厚。由于布林频带有开始打开的迹象，所以当布林频带接下来开始明显的打开时，那将是综指摆脱横摆巩固的时候了。