TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 31日 / Composite Index 31/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 31日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数盘中一度下滑至布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），惟综指随后精确的在布林中频带获得扶持而回弹，综指最终以1272.78点结束2009年的交易，全年上扬了396.03点或45.2%。

由于综指成功的守住布林中频带，这使到投资者对布林中频带的扶持力量信心大增，所以布林中频带继续的成为综指接下来的动态支持线，综指当前的阻力水平有1288点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1257点的23.6%费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量虽然稍微增加2.7%，不过成交量却渐渐的接近40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是因为40天的移动平均线也同时的向下滑落，这加快了成交量达到40天平均值的速度，若综指在2010年1月能出现传统的元月效应，那成交量达到40天的平均值将大大的增加综指能上扬的幅度。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离（MACD）在零轴获得扶持后回弹，并且上扬突破了触发线（Trigger），这显示综指的中长期有开始转强的迹象，直到平均乖离再度跌破触发线为止。

总的来说，综指在布林中频带上获得扶持，这是一个意义重大的技术讯号，因为这代表投资者仍然对综指的后市有信心，接下来若布林频带（Bollinger Bands）能开始明显的打开，那综指将有望开始期待已久的元月涨潮。

Composite Index 31/12/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band on Thursday, but it managed to rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, to close at 1272.78 points, closing the last trading day of the year 2009 with a yearly gain of 396.03 points or 45.2%.

Since the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 1257 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.7%, but still it is getting closer to the 40-day VMA level, as the 40-day VMA level is gradually falling. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should have the Chinese New Year effect with volume breaking above the 40-day VMA level, it would certainly improve the market sentiment at a whole.

As circled at C, the MACD rebounded at the zero level and also breaking above the trigger line. This suggests that the KLCI mid to longer term is regaining some strength. This positive signal for the KLCI shall remain intact until the MACD line should break below the trigger line.

In conclusion, the KLCI support at the Bollinger Middle Band is an important signal, as it shows that the immediate outlook is still on the positive side. If the Bollinger Bands should expand again with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside room is expected.

WISHING ALL BT VISITORS

"A HEALTHY & PROSPEROUS 2010"

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> FKLI AND FCPO Markets Overview 30 Dec 2009

FBM KLCI Futures Underpinned By Profit Taking & Softer Cash Market

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower today in line with the easier cash market, dealers said.

At the close, December 2009 contract declined eight points to 1,270.0, January 2010 dropped nine points to 1,267.0, February 2010 was 7.5 points lower at 1,269.0 and June 2010 fell 8.5 points to 1,268.

Total volume increased to 9,366 lots from 8,971 lots yesterday while open interest advanced to 22,010 contracts from 21,209 contracts previously.

The underlying FBM KLCI closed 4.1 points lower at 1,271.12.

Crude Palm Oil Futures End Off Highs; Market Expects Lower Exports
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended up Wednesday, but gains were trimmed amid expectations that palm oil exports for December may be 15%-16% lower on month, trade participants said.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR5 higher at MYR2,595 a metric ton, after reaching an intraday high of MYR2,609, tracking modest gains on crude oil futures during Asian trading hours.

At 1000 GMT, light, sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 6 cents higher at $78.93 a barrel.

Traders said that Malaysia's palm oil exports in December may be 200,000 tons lower than November's 1.42 million-1.46 million tons.

"Exports are likely around 1.2 million tons, with purchases to India likely to be much lower, as the country made aggressive purchases in the last two months–when (benchmark futures) prices were hovering around MYR2,400-MYR2,500," said a Malaysia-based vegetable oil exporter.

Malaysia's palm oil exports to India were at 124,510 tons and 181,500 tons for October and November, respectively, according to data from cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. showed–around double the usual monthly volume of 65,000-80,000 tons.

Cargo surveyors are expected to issue estimates of December palm oil shipments Thursday.

In the cash market, cash palm olein for January was traded at $780/ton, while April/May/June was traded at $800/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trader.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 lower at MYR2,540/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 79,032 lots, up from 78,620 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 6,414 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,629 lots traded Tuesday.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 30/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 30日

Composite Index 30/12/2009
The FBM KLCI corrected slightly on Wednesday, losing 4.10 points to close at 1271.12 points. As indicated by A, the support for the KLCI remains at 1257 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 1288 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 2%, suggesting that the KLCI might be consolidating again. Nonetheless, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, which is serving as the dynamic support.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.8%, with volume getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. Overall, the market participation has improved gradually, and generally, the improvement of market volume is a good sign as the inflow of fresh capital increases.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after touching 100%, which was an over-heated signal. However, provided that the Stochastic could maintain its position above the 70% level, the short term bullish signal shall remains intact.

In conclusion, after rising for 5 days, the KLCI has its mild correction on Wednesday. Technically speaking, with the KLCI supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate view of the KLCI is still on the brighter side.

综合指数 2009年 12月 30日
富时综合指数稍微调整，按日下滑4.10点，以1271.12点闭市（参考箭头A）。如图所示，综指当前的支持水平仍然维持在1257点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带收窄2%，这使到综指再度进入调整巩固的格局，无论如何目前布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）成为了综指当前的动态支持线，所以只要综指能继续在布林中频带上获得扶持的话，那综指将有望继续转强，上探1288点的阻力。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加1.8%，开始接近40天成交量平均值（VMA）的水平，这表示整体市场的交投开始活跃起来，若成交量能上扬达40天平均值的话，那将意味着投资者开始回笼，这对综指后市将有正面的影响。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在上扬达到100%后回软，这是因为随机指标达100%是综指短期走势过热的讯号，所以综指出现了短期的调整。一般上，只要随机指标能维持在70%以上，那综指整体的短期走势还是属于偏向上扬的。

总的来说，综指在上扬了5天后，由于触发了短期过热的技术讯号，所以综指周三出现调整，亦以技术而言，只要综指继续获得布林中频带的支持，那综指将继续的转强，直到综指跌破布林中频带为止。

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> Market Midday Overview 30 Dec 2009

Please click on images to ENLARGE. Thank you.

FBM KLCI Dips 0.39% Morning Session Close

The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia (FBM) Kuala Lumpur Composite Index ended the morning session 4.94 (0.39%) points lower at 1,270.28, after opening 0.30 of a point easier at 1,274.92.

Of heavyweights, Sime Darby eased two sen to RM8.99, CIMB Group lost 10 sen to RM13.00 and Genting fell five sen to RM7.36.Maybank declined four sen to RM6.86, Maxis was unchanged at RM5.37 and Tenaga slipped two sen to RM8.29.

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended the morning session mixed, led by losses in selected heavyweights and lower liners, as investors took the cue from the overnight slide on Wall Street, dealers said.

A dealer said the market was quiet as investors had locked in profits ahead of the long weekend.

Gainers led losers 247 to 263 while 248 stocks traded unchanged and 1,306 others were untraded. Volume stood at 281.119 million shares valued at RM344.073 million.

The Finance Index fell 48.189 points to 11,019.73, the Plantation Index eased 14.22 points to 6,358.04 and the Industrial Index declined 8.69 points to 2,666.84. The FBM Emas Index slipped 23.94 points to 8,485.5, the FBM Top 100 Index was 28.23 points lower at 8,292.01, the FBM70 Index declined 12.24 points to 8,250.16 but the FBM Ace Index advanced 60.71 points to 4,264.79.
HAPPY TRADING

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 12月 29日 / Composite Index 29/12/2009

综合指数 2009年 12月 29日
富时综合指数进一步上扬2.49点，以1275.22点闭市，这使到布林频带（Bollinger　Bands）继续的打开（+14%）。如图中箭头A所示，由于综指目前已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上了，所以只要布林频带继续打开，那综指将有望一直转强，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。

如图所示，综指在1257点的费氏线获得扶持后开始上扬，目前正开始上扬，若综指能上扬突破1288点的费氏线，综指将有望上探1300点的心理关口。综指当前的支持水平落在1257点的费氏线及布林中频带的动态支持线，阻力水平则是1288点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步增加，虽然成交量仍然未达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，不过只要成交量能持续增长，那综指转强的趋势将有望维持下去，进而形成一个新的涨势。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）达到100%，这表示综指的短期走势不止已经处于上扬的格局中，并且可能出现短期过热的情形，这是综指有技术调整的暗示，无论如何只要随机指标能一直维持在70%以上的话，那综指的短期涨势将有望持续下去，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，虽然目前只有短期指标发出综指处于转强的格局，接下来只要布林频带继续的打开，而综指又能维持在布林中频带以上的话，若再加上获得成交量达到40天平均值的确认，那综指将能完全形成一个上扬的趋势。

Composite Index 29/12/2009
On Tuesday, the FBM KLCI gained another 2.49 points, to close at 1275.22 points while the Bollinger Bands expanded 14%. As indicated by A, the KLCI is now above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate outlook for the KLCI is on the positive side. Therefore, should the Bollinger Bands continue to expand, more upside movement for the KLCI is likely, until the Bollinger Bands should contract again.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI regain some strength after rebounded from the 1257 Fibonacci Retracement, and if the KLCI could break above 1288 level, the next resistance would be at the 1300 psychological level. Support for the KLCI is still at 1257 while the immediate resistance is at 1288 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 25.4%, although it has not reached the 40-day VMA level. The increased of market volume is a good sign as it shows that the market participation is now increasing, which implies an improvement of the market sentiment as well as confidence.

As circled at C, the Stochastic touched 100%, which suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is in deed strong, but slightly over-heated. But still, provided that the Stochastic could maintain its position above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

In conclusion, the KLCI short term is improving, and if the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand while the KLCI staying above the Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with the continue increased of volume, the upside movement of the KLCI is likely to carry on.

HAPPY TRADING

FBM KLCI Futures Mostly Firmer At Midday

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives were mostly firmer at midday on Tuesday following a similar trend on the cash market, dealers said.

The December 2009 contract rose two points to 1,276.0, March 2010 slipped 0.5 of a point to 1,274.0 and June 2010 added 0.5 of a point to 1,275.0.

Turnover stood at 4,285 lots while open interests was at 21,209 contracts. On the cash market, the benchmark FBM KLCI was 1.25 points lower at 1,271.48 after opening 0.54 of a point firmer at 1,273.27.

Stops, Stops, and More Stops

More times than I can remember, I have said that protection and preservation of capital is the fundamental rule of trading. Simply, if you blow all your cash, how can you trade?

And as any successful trader will tell you, placing stops is one part of protecting and preserving your capital. Given this I am advising you all to read up on some trading strategies with regards to stops placement for your trading positions. There are many books (and some internet websites) available with lucid explanation of the available stop orders is illuminating and helpful to any trader. As well, it discusses strategies for placing stops in a variety of situations. For example ......

"On specifically where to place your protective buy or sell stop upon entering a trading position, one of the most popular and effective methods is to find a technical support or resistance level that is within your financial loss parameter for that particular trade."

As well, some of these books discusses one of the points I have also made time and again and that is:

"If your trade becomes a winner and profits begin to accrue, you may want to employ protective 'trailing stops,' whereby you adjust your protective stop to help you lock in the profit should the market turn against your position."

Letting your profits run does not mean letting the trade run without protection. If you find your trade hitting your profit target, and the trade is still showing strength, either tighten your stop or place a trailing stop to track that run.

Some books are particularly helpful to the trader who wants to know more about stops and how to use them. Some internet websites offers "trading educations" that touches on tactical stops trading simple enough for beginners and what's more >>> it is FOC to booth.

"For decades the individual small trader has heard unsettling stories that the floor, or pit, traders know exactly where the stop orders are placed in a market, and will 'gun' for those stops just to eject the individual trader from the market--only to see prices then reverse course after the stops were triggered."

Some author explains that conditions have to be just right for this to happen, and that it happens less today than it used to because of the communications changes that now send information down to the “pits” rather than up from the pits. This may be true, but let me tell you, it definitely still happens, and you need to know that it still happens.

What to do about it, though, is another topic all together. I have yet to figure out how to avoid this, other than to slightly change your stop when the price nears your placement. And since I have stated over and over again never changing your stops is good money management, I am somewhat stuck, as you are if you follow my advice. Perhaps the solution is embedded in a key sentence in the minds of a trader.

"Floor traders (aka crocs & sharks) seeking out the individual traders' protective buy and sell stops is more an art than science, as market conditions have to be just right for their efforts to pay off."

Placing stops can also be more of art than a science. Placing stops that work at both ends of the trade will come down to how well you understand your market, the movement of that market, and the overall market conditions surrounding your trade.

HAPPY TRADING

Regards,

ZL

The Art of Trading, What Does it Take?

The other day, a friend told me I needed to get out of the kampung to experience some big-city “fun,” so we went to an art exhibition to see the paintings of a local artist who has become quite successful. Yes, it has taken him many years to achieve his status as that of a “master,” but he has earned his success by painting, painting, and painting more. I enjoyed his works even though I'm not much of an artist myself, but, as usual, the whole endeavor turned my mind to trading, and for some inexplicable reason, the twists and turns of my thinking brought me to what I am about to to share you …

Becoming a master at anything requires years of training, which can be formal or not. Regardless, what has to occur is a two-fold process.

First, one has to learn the mechanics (technique) of what he or she is doing. In painting, the technique is all about strokes, color, light, perspective, and effect. In trading, technique is all about the trade, how to find it and execute it. Many people can learn technique of a “thing,” but less learn how to move from technique to mastering the art of whatever that thing is.

The second step in becoming a master is more subtle and almost indescribable, as it takes us to a place beyond the practicality of process; it takes us to a place in the mind.

To become a master painter, one has to, over time, incorporate the subtleties of technique into his or her unconscious mind. One has to flow and meld with the painting. This means when painting, an artist “knows” just how long to make a stroke, just how much color to add to a scene, just how much light or darkness will create a mood, and just how deep or wide to make the perspective for the intended effect.

This ability only comes with time, knowledge, and experience.

The same is true for a trader. One can readily learn the technique (mechanics) of trading, but to become consistently successful, time, experience, and knowledge have to come into play. One has to learn the subtleties of overall market movement, the reality of economic global flow, the effect of news and analysis on markets, and relationships between markets that can and do effect movement (intermarket analysis).

Once learned, second nature takes hold, and many of the decisions made are made without conscious knowledge.

This, then, becomes intuition, a sense of what will or should happen producing an “unvoiced” decision based on “feel’. This sense is the same one that produces master painters. This implies that one important aspect of successful trading is artful.

I believe the true masters of trading markets practice their “trade” with far more than just mechanics and knowledge. In their years of experience, they have mastered the mechanics of trading, but more importantly, their years of experience have incorporated into their minds, a sense of the markets and all of the surrounding influences upon those markets.

Their years of trading have created an intuitive understanding that affects their decisions whether they know it or not. This is the reason why it is difficult for those who follow these masters to duplicate their success.

In the end, one can try to copy the “style” of a master, but the outcome will surely be less than what the original is. No, the pure fact is that to become a master anything, including trading, one has to do that thing over and over again, always focusing on eliminating “errors,” always repeating the things that worked, always trying new things to improve, and, most importantly, always learning everything one can learn about whatever that particular medium is. In trading, the latter is, arguably, one of the most important …

HAPPY TRADING

Regards,

ZL

Random Charts >>> Market Movers Pre-Xmas Closing

Please click on images to ENLARGE. Thank you.

DJIA looks 2b enjoying double indemnity by way of SMA 30 & 50 support.

Until these 2 moving averages are violated, DJIA nampak OK aje :P

S&P 500 MACD just formed a Golden Cross while the Histogram Round Top formation is in progressive motion.

RSI 62.33 is stil below 70 overbought zone.

Crude oil ran smack into resistance. Traders may need to revaluate the strength of the greenback for oil futures.

Another round of Dollar vs Energy leveraging? Some form of arbitration could be on the cards.

Soyabean Oil is facing a long & hard climb before it can even reach US$40 Resistance.

Since CPO rise and fall in tandem with Soyabean oil, a sturdy support will limit CPO downside prices.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> FKLI and FCPO Overview 24 Dec 2009

FBM KLCI Futures Slightly Firmer At Close
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher on Thursday amid firmer underlying cash market, said dealers.
The December 2009 contract rose 0.5 of a point to 1,264.0, January 2010 inched up 0.5 of a point to 1,265.0, March 2010 added 1.0 point to 1,265.0 and June 2010 went up 1.5 points to 1,265.5.

Total volume improved to 7,508 lots from 6,809 lots yesterday while open interest increased to 19,858 contracts from 17,561 contracts.

The underlying FBM KLCI finished 3.41 points higher at 1,263.94 after opening 0.52 of a point lower at 1,260.0 this morning.

Crude Palm Oil Snaps Three-Day Decline, Buoyed By Crude
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Thursday, snapping a three-day decline as traders covered short positions in reaction to rising crude oil prices.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR54, or 2.2%, higher at MYR2,554 after reaching an intraday peak of MYR2,573.

However, a decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports prevented further gains on the BMD.

Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-25 period declined 11% compared with Nov. 1-25, to 1.0 million tons on a decline in purchases by China and India, both major buyers of the vegetable oil.
Exports to China declined 10% to 277,110 tons while shipments to India fell 46% to 131,000 tons, data from cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services showed.

Shipping executives and traders said exports during the full month of December will likely decline by 10% on month to around 1.28 million tons.

The weak export demand may lead to a slight build in December palm oil stocks, which could result in selling pressure, trade participants said.

As at end-November domestic palm reserves were at 1.93 million tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said recently.

"Currently there are more imports from Indonesia compared with palm oil shipments out of Malaysia, and the momentum of exports is weak," said a Pasir Gudang-based shipping executive.

On Monday, another cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. is expected to issue data on Malaysia's Dec. 1-25 palm oil exports.
At 1000 GMT, light, sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 40 cents higher at $77.07 a barrel after settling around 3% higher overnight.

January soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 35 points higher at 38.43 cents a pound on e-CBOT by the end of trade on the BMD.

Cash palm olein for April/May/June was traded at $780/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based broker.
Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR50 higher at MYR2,500/ton.

Open interest on the BMD was 80,746 lots Thursday, down from 82,890 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 8,262 lots of CPO were traded versus 12,065 lots Wednesday.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 24/12/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 12月 24日

Composite Index 24/12/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band on Thursday, but still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still weak while the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance remains intact. Other than the Bollinger Middle Band, the 1288 remains the resistance for the KLCI while the support is still at 1257 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Middle Band moved up slightly, and this may suggest that some slight improvement for the KLCI movement. Nevertheless, the KLCI has to first break above the Bollinger Middle Band, with the Bollinger Bands expanding, then only the KLCI would have a chance to regain some strength.

As indicated by B, total market volume further declined, while further below the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the market participation is low, and the market sentiment is also weak, as the KLCI is still trendless.
As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 30% level, as the KLCI technically rebounded. Therefore, it is breaking away from the short term bearish region. If the Stochastic should break above 70% and stay above that level, the short term movement for the KLCI would pickup some momentum.

After consolidating for a period of time, the KLCI is showing a slim chance of breaking away from the weakening movement. If the KLCI should successfully breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would have a better chance to regain some ground.

Nonetheless, the positive signal should be confirmed by the expansion of the Bollinger Bands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 12月 24日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的阻力，惟综指始终在布林中频带遇阻，未能成功突破此动态阻力线，这意味着综指并未确认转强的讯号。综指当前的阻力水平除了布林中频带外，就是1288点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1257点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林中频带稍微翘起，这暗示综指有止跌转强的迹象，无论如何，综指是必须先上扬突破布林中频带，同时再加上布林频带开始打开，那综指才有望形成一个上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量继续下滑，这是市场交投继续低迷所致，所以整体综指维持在一个横摆巩固的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）成功上扬突破30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势摆脱了下跌的趋势，接下来若随机指标能继续上扬，并进入70%以上的话，那综指的短期走势将有望形成一个上扬的趋势。

综指在盘整了一度日子后，有开始摆脱下跌的迹象，接下来若综指能上扬突破布林中频带，那综指继续转强的机会浓厚。由于布林频带有开始打开的迹象，所以当布林频带接下来开始明显的打开时，那将是综指摆脱横摆巩固的时候了。