TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 30日 / Composite Index 30/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 30日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周四在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的水平开市，随后节节上扬，最后以990.74点挂收，上扬23.28点或2.4%。综指的阻力水平依然是1000点的主要心理阻力水平，支持水平则是布林中频带的动态支持水平及959点的胜图自动费氏支持线。

如图所示，布林频带周四虽然只打开6%，但由于综指成功重返布林中频带以上，所以只要布林频带接下来能够继续打开的话，综指后市有望看高一线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量明显增加56%，继续维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场的交投不但活跃而且还增加了新的买盘，所以综指有望恢复上扬的趋势，惟接下来成交量必须继续保持在40天的成交量平均值以上。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹，分别上扬突破50%及70%的水平，再次进入短期强势区域里，通常只要随机指标能够保持在70%水平以上的话，综指短期的走势有望转强，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

总的来说，综指在技术调整后精确的在200天移动平均线（MA）止跌反弹，周四更重返布林中频带以上，这表示综指结束了技术调整，不过此讯号要等到布林频带明显的打开来才能确认。无论如何，1000点的心理水平将是综指接下来面对的强力阻力水平，若综指能够突破此阻力水平，再加上市场成交量继续偏高的话，综指有望维持目前上扬的格局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI opened precisely at the Bollinger Middle Band level, closing 23.28 points higher to 990.74 points. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1000 mark while the Bollinger Middle Band is the dynamic support for the KLCI followed by the 959 Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 6%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is now positive biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, more upside room for the KLCI is expected.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 56%, while remain above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is fueled by more new inflow of fresh capital, thus a positive sign for the KLCI to resume its uptrend. Provided that the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is likely to continue.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded, breaking above 50% as well as the 70% level, re-entering the short term bullish territory. Provided that the Stochastic is above the 70% level, the short term bullish market movement is expected to continue.

After rebounding from the 200-day MA, the KLCI managed to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, which is a good signal, suggesting the KLCI might be resuming its uptrend.

Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, the positive movement of the KLCI is expected to continue. Nevertheless, the 1000 market is still an important resistance level for the KLCI.