ZLBT Chats

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 22日 / Composite Index 22/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 22日
如图中A圈所示,综合指数一度上探972点的阻力水平,不过在午盘后开始回软,所以综指精确的在972点水平遇阻,只微扬1.98点,这表示972点胜图自动费氏继续的成为综指当前的阻力水平,支持水平则依然分别是937点胜图自动费氏线,布林中频带及T1上升趋势线。
如图所示,布林频带收窄2%,这表示综指依然未能摆脱调整巩固的格局,若布林频带接下来进一步收窄的话,综指将继续的出现调整巩固,直到布林频带重新打开为止,而布林中频带则是调整的第一个目标。
如中箭头B所示,马股总成交量稍微增加3.9%,继续保持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上. 这表示目前市场的交投依然活跃,所以虽然继续有套利活动的涌现,不过依然有足够的承接力量吸纳,这使到虽然综指正在进行调整巩固,不过综指还是能保持不出现大跌的格局。
如图中C线所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)再度下跌,继续的形成圆顶,这表示综指还是处于短期巩固的格局中,直到振荡指标形成相对的圆底为止,届时综指才有望摆脱巩固格局。
虽然综指已经处于200天移动平均线(MA)以上,不过还是未能突破972点的
阻力水平,这表示市场出现熊市及牛市的拉锯战,投资者还是举棋不定,等待市场进一步的明朗化,所以综指暂时还未算进入牛市。无论如何,由于综指继续处于布林中频带以上,综指还算是调整中偏向上扬的格局,直到综指跌破布林中频带为止。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 22/04/2009
As circled at A, the KLCI attempted to break the 972 level, with its intra-day high reaching 976.29 points.
However, the KLCI lost most of its early gains in the afternoon session, closing below the 972 level at 968.58 points. Therefore, the 972 resistance remains intact, while the supports are still at 937 Fibonacci Retracement, followed by the Bollinger Middle Band and T1 dynamic supports.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 2% on Wednesday, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating, despite closing marginally higher. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to contract, the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 3.9%, while still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still relatively active but insufficient to support the KLCI break out of the 972 level. Nevertheless, with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is likely to sustain.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling while no rounding bottom is sighted yet. The falling of the MACD histogram suggests that the KLCI short term is still consolidating. Although the KLCI is still above the 200-day MA for the 4th day, it has not yet confirmed its break out, for the KLCI is still resisted by the 972 level.
In short, the KLCI has not yet entered a bull run. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive biased.
HAPPY TRADING !!!

No comments:

Post a Comment