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Friday, April 10, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 9日 / Composite Index 09/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 9日如图所示,综合指数周四回弹10.02点或1.1%,惟布林频带(Bollinger Bands)没有明显打开,所以暂时未能确定综指完全恢复转强的格局。综指目前的支持水平落在905点的胜图自动费氏线、T1的上扬趋势线(Uptrend Line)及布林中频带的动态支持水平,阻力水平则依然是937点的胜图自动费氏阻力线。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带只打开2%,虽然不足以确认综指上扬的讯号,不过由于综指处于布林中频带以上,这表示综指依然属于强势中。若综指继续高于布林中频带,接下来只要布林频带再度打开的话,综指就有望更上一层楼。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加16.6%,这使到成交量保持在40天的成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,表示市场还是相当的活跃。通常成交量高于40天的平均值是综指上扬的重要条件之一,因为只要市场有足够的承接力来吸纳卖压的话,那将有助于综指继续上扬。
如图中C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)周四继续的下滑,形成一个圆顶(Rounding Top),这表示综指短期走势有巩固或技术调整的风险,直到平均乖离形成相对的圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。

总的来说,由于综指继续处于布林中频带以上,再加上成交量高于40天的平均值,所以综指还是属于调整中带上扬的格局,如布林频带进一步打开的话综指将有望更上一层楼

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 09/04/2009
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI rebounded10.02 points on Thursday, closing at 917.89 points. However, the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded significantly, and therefore, it has not confirmed the bullish signal. Nevertheless, support for the KLCI is at 905 Fibonacci Retracement, the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support as well as the T1 uptrend line, while the resistance remains at 937 FR.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 2%, and therefore, insignificant to suggest any bullish signal for the KLCI. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expands again, more upside room for the KLCI is expected.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 16.6% on Thursday, with volume clearly above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated, which is an important element for the KLCI to resume its rally.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling, while showing a rounding top. This suggests that there is still a chance for a short term consolidation for the KLCI, until the MACD histogram should tick up and form a rounding bottom.
With KLCI above the rising Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with volume clearly above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is set to resume its bullish biased movement, and the only confirmation needed is the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width.

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