TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 15/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 15日

综合指数 2009年 4月 15日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数的布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始收窄8%，表示综指的涨势有开始进入调整巩固的讯号，无论如何综指依然微涨0.3%。通常综指调整的第一个目标将是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这也是综指当前的动态支持线。937点的胜图自动费氏线是综指目前的支持水平，阻力了水平则是972点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度增加16.4%，这表示市场还是属于非常活跃。无论如何，由于布林频带开始收窄，表示综指将进入调整巩固格局，通常当综指巩固时，成交量会减少，不过只要成交量能够继续保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上的话，那将有助于综指维持上扬的格局。

如图中箭头C所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）开始下滑，有形成圆顶（Rounding Top）的迹象。若平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶的话，那将是综指短期出现技术调整或巩固的讯号。通常若振荡指标开始下滑的话，综指短期有转弱的风险，直到振荡指标形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。在中期趋势方面，由于平均乖离线（MACD Line）依然处于零轴以上，这表示综指中期的走势还是属于上扬的格局。

布林频带自4月2日打开以来第一次收窄，布林频带收窄后表示综指将酝酿另一个新的走势，而新的走势必须要等到布林频带重新打开才能辨认出来。总的来说，只要综指接下来只要能在布林中频带上扶持扶持的话，那调整只是属于上扬趋势中的驿站。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/04/2009

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 8% on Wednesday, suggesting the KLCI is likely to consolidate. If the KLCI should consolidate, the Bollinger Middle Band is usually the first target of the consolidation or correction. Nevertheless, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T1 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI, together than the 937 immediate support level, while the resistance is still at 972 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased another 16.4%, this shows that the current market is indeed active, thus suggesting a better confidence of investors. Nevertheless, should the KLCI consolidate, volume would be slightly reduced. Provided that the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the current positive market sentiment is expected to continue.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram started to fall on Wednesday, suggesting that the MACD histogram might be forming a rounding top. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding top, it would be a signal suggesting a short term technical correction or a consolidation for the KLCI, and the short term movement of the KLCI is likely be slightly weaker, until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom.

The Bollinger Bands Width started expanding since 2nd of April, and until today, it is its first time to contract. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggesting that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the new movement shall only be revealed when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. Nevertheless, with the KLCI still supported by t he Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is still bullish biased, and based on the current market condition, the KLCI is likely to take a minor pause before resuming its uptrend movement.