TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 06/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 6日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 905 Fibonacci Retracement, closing 16.76 points higher to 923.77 points. Since the 905 Fibonacci Retracement is also very closed to the 900 psychological level, it is now the important support for the KLCI, while the resistance is now at 937 Fibo Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 14% with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased, and the Bollinger Middle Band is also serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI together with the T1 uptrend line.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.6%, but still very much above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated, with sufficient liquidity to absorb the selling pressure at the resistance. Therefore, provided that the volume is still above 40-day VMA level, the current bullish biased sentiment is likely to sustain.

As circled at C, the Stochastic %D line is now above 90% level, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is over-bought. Therefore, there is a risk of a technical correction for the KLCI.

Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.
After the rebound at T1 on the 31st of March, the KLCI gained 54 points or 6.3% in just 5 trading days. Therefore, it is totally normal if the KLCI should have a correction. From a technical analysis point of view, the best correction would be a low-volatile sideways movement. If the KLCI should remained supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA or the T1 line, the uptrend is expected to sustain.

综合指数 2009年 4月 6日

如图中箭头A 所示，综合指数周一上扬16.76点或1.8%，成功守住905点的胜图自动费氏线。由于905点的胜图自动费氏线相当接近900点的心理水平，这将成为了综指接下来重要的心理支持水平，综指当前的阻力水平处于937点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）进一步打开14%，而综指继续的处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指再度扬升。除了布林中频带外，14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（EMA）及图中T1的上升趋势线（Uptrend Line）也是综指上扬的动态支持水平（Dynamic Support）。只要综指继续获得动态支持水平扶持的话，那综指有望维持当前的上扬格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量在周一虽然减少6.6%，但依然维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场目前是相当的活跃，有足够的承接力来吸纳投资者套利的卖压。接下来只要成交量能够保持在40天成交量平均值以上的话，那将有助于综指维持上扬的趋势。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）的%D线处于90%水平以上，这表示综指连续的上扬已经使到市场出现短期过热的状况，不过这亦是市场购兴热炽所致。无论如何，虽然综指有出现技术调整的风险，只要随机指标接下来能够保持在70%水平以上，综指短期还是属于强势中。

综指自3月31日在T1上升趋势线反弹以来，在短短5个交易日里上涨了54点或6.3%，若接下来出现技术调整也是非常合理的。从技术分析的角度来看，最好的调整莫过于低横摆。若综指调整后依然在EMA及布林中频带获得扶持的话，综指就有望继续的上扬的趋势。