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Monday, April 6, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 06/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 6日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 905 Fibonacci Retracement, closing 16.76 points higher to 923.77 points. Since the 905 Fibonacci Retracement is also very closed to the 900 psychological level, it is now the important support for the KLCI, while the resistance is now at 937 Fibo Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 14% with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased, and the Bollinger Middle Band is also serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI together with the T1 uptrend line.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.6%, but still very much above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated, with sufficient liquidity to absorb the selling pressure at the resistance. Therefore, provided that the volume is still above 40-day VMA level, the current bullish biased sentiment is likely to sustain.
As circled at C, the Stochastic %D line is now above 90% level, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is over-bought. Therefore, there is a risk of a technical correction for the KLCI.
Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.
After the rebound at T1 on the 31st of March, the KLCI gained 54 points or 6.3% in just 5 trading days. Therefore, it is totally normal if the KLCI should have a correction. From a technical analysis point of view, the best correction would be a low-volatile sideways movement. If the KLCI should remained supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA or the T1 line, the uptrend is expected to sustain.

综合指数 2009年 4月 6日
如图中箭头A 所示,综合指数周一上扬16.76点或1.8%,成功守住905点的胜图自动费氏线。由于905点的胜图自动费氏线相当接近900点的心理水平,这将成为了综指接下来重要的心理支持水平,综指当前的阻力水平处于937点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步打开14%,而综指继续的处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,所以综指再度扬升。除了布林中频带外,14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(EMA)及图中T1的上升趋势线(Uptrend Line)也是综指上扬的动态支持水平(Dynamic Support)。只要综指继续获得动态支持水平扶持的话,那综指有望维持当前的上扬格局。



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