TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 29日 / Composite Index 29/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 29日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周三一度下滑，惟精确的在200天移动平均线（MA）上获得扶持然后反弹，按日微扬1.76点。综指目前的支持水平落在959点胜图自动费氏线及200天移动平均线，阻力水平则是993点胜图自动费氏线及1000点的心理阻力水平. 布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄10%，表示综指目前依然没有摆脱技术调整的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度明显减少（-32.8%），不过还是保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示虽然综指出现技术调整而导致投资者离场观望，不过市场还是有足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压。无论如何，若综指要恢复上扬趋势的话，成交量必须再次增加，那综指才有望突破993及1000点的重要阻力水平。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）并未跌破30%水平，这表示综指短期还不至于进入短期下跌的趋势，只是属于技术调整格局中。若随机指标能够上扬突破70%水平的话，综指短期就有望恢复短期上扬的格局。

总的来说，综指技术调整后在200天MA止跌回弹，所以若综指能够继续处于在200天MA以上的话，综指有望继续的转强。综指接下来若能上扬突破布林中频带，那就有望摆脱技术调整格局，惟要到布林频带重新打开才能确认此上扬的讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 29/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI touches the 200-day MA and rebounded, closing 1.76 points higher at 967.46 points. Therefore, supports for the KLCI are still at 200-day MA and 959 Fibonacci Retracement, while the resistance are still at 993 FR and 1000 mark.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 10% on Wednesday, suggesting that the KLCI is still in its technical correction stage, until the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 32.8%, as the KLCI going through its technical correction. Nevertheless, should the KLCI attempt to resume its rally, volume has to increase significantly to confirm the bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic did not break below 30% level, suggesting that the KLCI is still having its technical correction but not yet turning bearish. If the Stochastic should return to above 70% level, the KLCI short term movement is expected to improve.

With the KLCI rebounding from the 200-day MA, this suggests that the KLCI has not turned bearish. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI to regain its strength, but to confirm any bullish movement, the Bollinger Bands Width has to re-expands with the KLCI firmly above the Bollinger Middle Band.