TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 24/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 24日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 24/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI opened gap up on Friday, closing 14.04 points higher to 992.68 points, forming a Continuous Gap. The KLCI is now precisely resisted by the 993 Fibonacci Retracement, while the Continuous Gap suggests that the KLCI rally is speeding up while getting closer to its peak, and there is risk of a technical correction in near term.

Resistance for the KLCI is still at 993 FR and 1000 psychological level, while the Bollinger Middle Band and T1 uptrend line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by A, total market volume increased significantly (52.4%) on Friday, marking a 18 months new high. This suggests that the market is indeed well-participated, thus a positive note to the overall performance of the KLCI. Generally, provided that the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI uptrend is likely to continue.

As circled at C, the Stochastic hits 100% again, suggesting the KLCI is over-bought again. This is a sign of a short term over-heated condition, and therefore, the KLCI is expected to have a consolidation or a technical correction in the near future. However, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased.

Although the KLCI had a Continuous Gap, it does not mean that the rally of the KLCI is going to end, it is merely a over-bought signal suggesting a correction is likely to take place. Therefore, it is a good idea to tighten stop-loss level with the Bollinger Middle Band, just in case the KLCI should have a steep correction.

综合指数 2009年 4月 24日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周五跳空稍微上扬，形成延续缺口（Continuous Gap），随后综指精确的在993点胜图自动费氏阻力线遇阻。延续缺口的出现表示综指目前在现有的涨势中再度加速上扬，通常这一类缺口出现后都暗示涨势开始接近高峰，所以有调整的风险。

综指目前的阻力水平是993点及1000点的心理阻力水平，支持水平则依然是布林中频带及T1的上升趋势线。另一方面，布林频带进一步收窄13%，这表示虽然综指继续面对套利的活动，不过由于继续有新的买盘涌入，所以综指处于一个向上移动的巩固格局，这是因为综指涨势凌厉所致。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周五大幅度的增加52.4%，创下了18个月的成交量新高，这表示市场交投热炽，继续有新资金进场，所以市场有足够的承接力量，这有助于吸纳套利的卖压，维持综指上扬的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再次到达100%的水平，这是综指短期出现过热及超买（Over-bought）的讯号，暗示综指有技术调整的风险。无论如何，只要随机指标能够继续保持在70%水平以上的话，那综指还是属于上扬的格局中。

总的来说，综指涨势加速才形成延续缺口，但这并不代表涨势将要结束，这是综指短期涨势强劲的讯号。不过投资者还是应该采用布林中频带作为追踪止损的参考水平，以免综指在超买后出现大幅度调整时被套牢。