TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 8日 / Composite Index 08/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 8日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数在周二形成十字架（Doji）阴阳烛后，布林频带（Bollinger Ban）停止打开（0%），这表示综指出现调整。接下来布林频带若进一步收窄的话，综指将进入技术调整或巩固的格局，而布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）则是调整的第一个目标，这也是动态支持线。

如图所示，905点的胜图自动费氏线是综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则依然是937点的胜图自动费氏阻力线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少了23.7%，但仍然维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示市场目前还是有着足够的承接力以吸纳套利的卖压，这有助于综指维持上扬的格局。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）开始下滑，有形成圆顶（Rounding Top）的迹象。若平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶，那将是综指短期技术调整的讯号，直到平均乖离振荡指标形成相对的圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

综指自上周在布林中频带反弹以来上扬了54点，所以目前出现技术调整是合理及健康的。无论如何，综指必须继续的在T1趋势线获得扶持，形成一波比一波高的底（Higher-low），那综指才能维持上扬的格局。

Co mposite Index Daily Technical Analysis 08 /04/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width did not expanded (0%), suggesting it is likely to contract from now, thus a signal suggesting a consolidation or technical correction for the KLCI. Nevertheless, the first target of the technical correction is still the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the 905 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still the important support level for the KLCI while the resistance is at 937 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement

.As indicated by B, total market volume declined 23.7%, but volume is still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that despite the decline of volume, the market is still actively participated, which is still a good sign for the KLCI.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram started falling, and might be forming a rounding top. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding top, it would be a signal suggesting a short term technical correction for the KLCI. Provided that the MACD histogram is still falling, the short term movement of the KLCI is likely to be weak until the MACD histogram should tick up and form a rounding bottom.