TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 07/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 7日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 07/04/2009
On Tuesday, the KLCI closed mixed, forming a Doji candlestick while losing 3.93 points to 919.84 points. This suggests that the KLCI is likely to consolidate in the near term. As indicated by A, the 905 Fibonacci Retracement is still an important support for the KLCI while the resistance is at 937 FR. Meanwhile, the T1 uptrend line is still the uptrend dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding 13%, suggesting the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI, and the target is usually the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 8.3% on Tuesday, but volume is still clearly above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the current market is still actively participated, thus the market sentiment is still positive. If the KLCI should consolidate, it is normal to see more decline in volume as investors would choose to stay on the sideline while the KLCI consolidate.

As circled at C, the Stochastic fell below 90% by margin, suggesting a beginning of a technical correction or a consolidation. However, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

Despite a sign of consolidation, the Bollinger Bands Width has not yet contracted. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would suggests that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

综合指数 2009年 4月 7日

如图所示，综合指数周二微跌3.93点或0.4%，形成一个十字架（Doji）阴阳烛，这表示市场一度面对套利的卖压，惟还是有一度的买盘扶持，使到买卖双方势均力敌。图中箭头A所示，905点的胜图自动费氏线依然是一道重要的支持水平，另外图中T1上升趋势线（Uptrend Line）则是综指上扬的动态支持水平，综指的阻力水平是937点的胜图自动费氏阻力线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度稍微减少至13%，表示综指目前虽然处于上扬的格局中，不过涨势有缓慢下来的迹象，这是套利活动的现象。接下来若布林频带开始收窄的话，这表示综指进入调增或巩固的格局，通常综指调整的第一个目标是布林中频带的动态支持线。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二减少8.3%，但是依然维持在40天的成交量平均移动线（VMA）以上，这显示市场目前依然相当的活跃。

若综指进入巩固或调整格局的话，成交量一般会稍微减少，这是因为投资者都会在综指酝酿新的走势时保持观望。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微跌破90%的水平，表示综指短期从过热超买中缓和下来。无论如何，只要随机指标能够保持在70%水平以上的话，综指短期还是属于强势。

目前综指稍微有调整巩固的迹象，但必须配合布林频带开始收窄才能确认综指巩固的讯号。当布林频带收窄时表示综指将酝酿一个新的走势，直到布林频带重新打开为止。