TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 23/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 23日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/04/200
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 972 resistance, closing 10.06 points or 1% higher at 978.64 points. Therefore, the 200-MA is now the immediate support for the KLCI, while the next resistance is seen at 993 Fibonacci Retracement or the 1000 important psychological level.

Despite the KLCI closing higher, the Bollinger Bands Width did not expand. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside room is expected for the KLCI. Both the Bollinger Middle Band and T1 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 23%, suggesting investors' interest is back to the market after a consolidation. Provided that the volume is still higher above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to sustain its uptrend.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling but with a slower rate, therefore, it might be forming a rounding bottom. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom, it would be a signal suggesting an end to the consolidation, and the KLCI is expected to return to its rally.

The KLCI rally continues with important criteria, which are volume above the 40-day VMA level as well as the KLCI supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band. The only missing signal is the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand, KLCI is likely to have more upside movement.

综合指数 2009年 4月 23日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数上扬突破972点的阻力水平，上扬10.06点或1%，以978.64点挂收。由于综指刚突破972点，这表示综指接下来必须继续处于972点以上，综指才能算是成功站稳在972点的支持点上。200天的移动平均线（Moving Average）是综指当前的第一个支持水平，阻力水平是993点的胜图自动费氏线及1000点的心理阻力水平。

虽然综指周四上扬，不过布林频带（Bollinger Bands）却还没有打开，反而收窄17%。若综指上扬能够配合布林频带打开的话，那将能加强综指上扬的讯号，无论如何，布林频带收窄意味着由于继续有买盘涌入，所以综指出现了难得一见的上移的调整巩固格局，这是因为大部分的套利活动都被吸纳所致。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周四增加21.8%，这显示投资者继续入市，使到市场的交投再度活跃起来。换句话说，只要成交量能够继续维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上的话，这将有助于推高综指。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）还是下跌，不过下跌的速度缓慢下来，这意味着振荡指标有望形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），若振荡指标形成圆底的话，届时将表示综指摆脱调整巩固，恢复转强上扬的格局。

总的来说，综指目前依然有上扬的条件，那就是维持在布林中频带以上及成交量处于40天的平均值以上，若布林频带接下来能够再度打开的话，那综指后市有望更上一层楼。

HAPPY TRADING !!!