TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 16/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 16日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 16/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI formed a Spinning Top candlestick pattern, suggesting some profit taking activities. Meanwhile, the KLCI hit a resistance at 970 (972 Fibonacci Retracement) together with the 200-day Moving Average, and therefore, the KLCI is testing an important resistance level.

Support for the KLCI is still at 937 while the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the T1 uptrend line are still the dynamic supports for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width also contracted 8%, suggesting the KLCI is about to consolidate or even a technical correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 18.6% on Thursday, making a 19 months volume new high.

With the KLCI precisely resisted by the 200-day Moving Average line, the huge volume on Thursday actually suggested that the 970 and the 200-Moving Average level is going to be a strong resistance for the KLCI. Nevertheless, should volume remain above the 40-day VMA level, the current positive market sentiment is likely to sustain.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram continued to fall, forming a rounding top. This suggests that the KLCI short term is having a consolidation or even a technical correction. As long as the MACD histogram is still falling, the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be weaker, until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom.

With the KLCI resisted by the 970 and the 200-day Moving Average, coupled with indicators signals suggesting consolidation or technical correction signals, the KLCI is likely to consolidate. Technically speaking, a healthy uptrend must have consolidations and corrections. Generally, the first target for the consolidation is at the Bollinger Middle Band, and if the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band with strong volume, it is likely to resume its current rally.

综合指数 2009年 4月 16日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周四一度上探200天移动平均线（MA），惟综指精确在200天MA遇阻，形成旋转陀螺形（Spinning Top）的阴阳烛图形，这表示综指出现套利的现象，有进入技术调整的迹象。由于200天是牛市及熊市的分水岭，所以综指未能突破200天MA显示综指还未能真正摆脱熊市的格局，而200天MA将成为综指接下来的主要动态阻力水平。

另一方面，综指当前的阻力水平是972点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则落在937点的胜图自动费氏线，动态支持水平依然是布林中频带及T1的上升趋势线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量进一步增加18.6%，创下19个月的成交量新高，表示市场热炽。由于综指在200天MA及接近972点的胜图自动费氏阻力线遇上阻力，此特别高的成交量将表示综指遇到强大的阻力水平，再加上布林频带开始收窄，所以综指并不容易突破此阻力水平。无论如何，只要成交量还是能够维持在40天成交量平均线（VMA）以上的话，那市场目前的乐观投资气氛还是有望维持下去。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续下滑，形成圆顶，表示综指短期有巩有技术调整的风险，直到振荡指标回升形成圆底为止。

布林频带周四继续收窄8%，再加上200天MA的阻力，所以综指是有开始进入调整的迹象。从技术分析的角度来看，综指必须先要技术调整或巩固后，才有望维持健康的涨势。接下来重要的条件在于综指调整后是否能在布林中频带继续获得扶持，若综指能在布林中频带以上反弹的话，届时综指有望恢复上扬格局。