Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI closed at its daily of 968.37 points on Monday, up 3.2 points, with its intra-day low reaching 957.57 points. Despite the KLCI staying marginally above the 200-day Moving Average, the KLCI has not entered a bull market yet. This is because the KLCI is still resisted by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 2%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating. The consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. Supports for the KLCI remain at 937 FR, the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the T1 uptrend line.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 21.3%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that despite the declined in market participation, the overall market is still relatively active. Nevertheless, it is usually normal to have lower volume as the KLCI is consolidating, but if the KLCI should break above the 972 Fibonacci Retracement, substantial volume is needed to confirm the breakout.
In short, the KLCI has not yet entered a bull run, despite staying marginally above the 200-day MA, for the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, while the KLCI is still resisted by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement; furthermore, total market volume is not substantial to confirm the bull signal. Therefore, the KLCI is likely to remain in its consolidation stage for now, until a valid break out above 972 with significant increased of volume.
另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）在周一收窄2%，这表示虽然综指进一步扬升，不过其实综指是属于巩固的格局中，直到布林频带再次打开为止。综指支持水平依然是937点的胜图自动费氏线、布林中频带及T1的上升趋势线。
虽然综指周一微扬，但是整体来说综指目前其实正处于一个调整巩固的格局，这是因为布林频带并没有打开、成交量减少，再加上综指未能完全确认突破200天移动平均线这牛市熊市的分水岭，所以综指目前正在尝试消化套利及技术阻力的压力，换句话说，综指需要更多的利好消息及因素，才能成功摆脱熊市的格局。
As indicated by A, the KLCI closed at its daily of 968.37 points on Monday, up 3.2 points, with its intra-day low reaching 957.57 points. Despite the KLCI staying marginally above the 200-day Moving Average, the KLCI has not entered a bull market yet. This is because the KLCI is still resisted by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 2%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating. The consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. Supports for the KLCI remain at 937 FR, the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the T1 uptrend line.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 21.3%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that despite the declined in market participation, the overall market is still relatively active. Nevertheless, it is usually normal to have lower volume as the KLCI is consolidating, but if the KLCI should break above the 972 Fibonacci Retracement, substantial volume is needed to confirm the breakout.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling and now rounding bottom is sighted yet. This suggests that the KLCI is still under its short term consolidation stage, and consolidation is expected to continue until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom.
In short, the KLCI has not yet entered a bull run, despite staying marginally above the 200-day MA, for the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, while the KLCI is still resisted by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement; furthermore, total market volume is not substantial to confirm the bull signal. Therefore, the KLCI is likely to remain in its consolidation stage for now, until a valid break out above 972 with significant increased of volume.
综合指数 2009年 4月 20日
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数一度下跌，惟在200天移动平均线（Moving Average -MA)上精确的获得扶持，随后以全日最高点968.37点挂收，上扬3.2点。虽然综指目前稍微处于200天移动平均线以上，但综指还未成功突破972点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，所以综指突破200天移动平均线的讯号未被确认。
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数一度下跌，惟在200天移动平均线（Moving Average -MA)上精确的获得扶持，随后以全日最高点968.37点挂收，上扬3.2点。虽然综指目前稍微处于200天移动平均线以上，但综指还未成功突破972点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，所以综指突破200天移动平均线的讯号未被确认。另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）在周一收窄2%，这表示虽然综指进一步扬升，不过其实综指是属于巩固的格局中，直到布林频带再次打开为止。综指支持水平依然是937点的胜图自动费氏线、布林中频带及T1的上升趋势线。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度减退21.3%，不过还保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示虽然市场继续出现套利的压力，但依然有足够的承接力来吸纳。无论如何，成交量在综指巩固时减退一般是正常的，但若综指要上扬突破972点阻力水平的话，成交量就必须明显增加来支持上扬的讯号。
如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续的下滑，至今依然没有形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），这表示综指短期还是属于巩固的格局中，直到振荡指标形成圆底为止。
如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续的下滑，至今依然没有形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），这表示综指短期还是属于巩固的格局中，直到振荡指标形成圆底为止。
虽然综指周一微扬，但是整体来说综指目前其实正处于一个调整巩固的格局，这是因为布林频带并没有打开、成交量减少，再加上综指未能完全确认突破200天移动平均线这牛市熊市的分水岭，所以综指目前正在尝试消化套利及技术阻力的压力，换句话说，综指需要更多的利好消息及因素，才能成功摆脱熊市的格局。
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