TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 10/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 10日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 10/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 937 Fibonacci Retracement, closing 23.49 points higher to 941.38 points, and marked a 6 months new high. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is at 937 while the next resistance is at 970 level. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T1 uptrend line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 18%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, this suggests that the KLCI is resuming its upward movement. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, more upside room is expected for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 61.5%, and marked a new high since 10th of March, 2008 (the first trading day after the General Election). This shows that investors are regaining some confidence in the local market as the buying interest increases. Anyhow, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important element for the KLCI to sustain its bullish movement.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram ticked up and forming a rounding bottom, suggesting an end to the short term consolidation signal, and the KLCI is resuming its rally.

Meanwhile, the MACD line is still rising above the zero level, suggesting the medium to longer term movement of the KLCI is still improving.

For now, the requirements for the KLCI uptrend are in place, coupled with the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to above 8000 level, as well as the regional markets are still rising, the outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract in the near future, it would be a signal suggest another consolidation for the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 4月 10日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数上扬突破937点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，以941.38点挂收，按日上扬23.49点，并且创下6个月的新高（New High）。由于综指成功突破了937点的水平， 937点的水平成为综指当前的支持水平，布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）及T1上升趋势线（Uptrend Line）则分别是综指上扬的动态支持水平。综指接下来的阻力水平是970点的水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开18%，加上综指继续处于布林中频带以上，所以综指恢复的上扬的格局。通常只要布林频带能继续打开的话，那综指后市有望看高一线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加61.5%，这是自去年3月10日（大选后的第一个交易日）以来最高成交量的一天，这表示投资者开始对马股恢复信心而增加购兴。成交量保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上是综指上扬的重要条件之一，所以成交量必须继续维持在40天的成交量平均值以上，那综指才有望延续上扬格局。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）周五上扬，再度形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），这表示综指已摆脱了短期巩固的格局。另一方面，平均乖离线（MACD Line）继续处于零轴以上，这表示综指中长期的走势依然处于转强的格局中。

综指目前具备上扬的条件，加上美国道琼指数重返8000点水平及亚太区域股市都纷纷处于涨势中，所以综指有望维持目前上升的趋势，直到布林频带收窄为止，届时将是综指出现调整巩固的讯号。