TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 4月 21日 / Composite Index 21/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 21日
如图中A圈所示，综指继续的在200天移动平均线（MA）上巩固，综指虽然在200天MA及972点胜图自动费氏线遇到阻力，但并未出现大幅度的回调，综指周二只稍微下跌1.77点，这表示市场套利活动继续涌现，但不至于形成惊慌抛售的现象。

综指当前的支持水平依然分别落在937点胜图自动费氏线、布林中频带的动态支持水平及T1上升趋势线，阻力水平则是972点的胜图自动费氏线。另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）在周二只打开2%，所以还是未能明显的确认综指突破200天移动平均线的上扬讯号。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二增加34.2%，

使到成交量保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示目前市场有足够的承接力量，只要成交量能够继续保持在40天平均值或以上的话，那将有助于综指维持目前马股的良好投资气氛，综指才有望上扬突破972点的阻力水平。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续下滑，维持着圆顶（Rounding Top）的状态，所以表示综指短期还是属于巩固的格局中，直到振荡指标回升形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

由于美国道琼斯下跌将近300点，使到亚太区域股市都纷纷出现调整，而综指着在200天MA的水平徘徊，等待市场进一步的指引。无论如何，综指目前处于布林中频带以上，所以只要布林频带再度明显打开的话，综指有望上扬突破972点的阻力水平，再次形成上扬的趋势，不过这必须要获得成交量明显增加才能确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 21/04/2009

As circled at A, the KLCI continue to consolidate above the 200-day MA, closing 1.77 point lower on Tuesday. While the KLCI remain resisted by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement, there are signs of some profit taking activities, but no signs of panic selling.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 2%, which is too insignificant to signal any bullish signal for the KLCI. Nevertheless, supports for the KLCI remain at 937 Fibonacci Retracement, Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support, as well as the T1 uptrend line.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 34.2% on Tuesday, while still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market participation is still positive, and it is likely to maintain the current positive market sentiment. Therefore, if volume should continue to increase, it would help the KLCI in testing the 972 overhead resistance.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling while showing a rounding top. Therefore, this suggests that the KLCI short term is still consolidating; until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom, the consolidation is expected to continue.

Due to the overnight fall of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, coupled with the Asian markets are having their correction, the KLCI continued its consolidation at the 200-day MA level. With the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive biased.

Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with significant increased of volume, it would be a signal suggesting the KLCI is resuming its rally, thus a chance to break above the 972 level.