TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 17/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 17日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 17/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke marginally above the 200-day Moving Average line, closing 3.89 points higher to 965.17 points. However, the breakout is yet to be confirmed for the volume on Friday was significantly lower. Coupled with the KLCI is still resisted by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement, therefore, the breakout is not valid.

Support for the KLCI remains at 937 Fibonacci Retracement and the T1 uptrend line. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 3% on Friday, failing to confirm any breakout signal of the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 48.5%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated despite the fall of volume; also, the lower volume during the KLCI consolidation suggests that there are no panic selling at the moment, thus a healthy consolidation signal, technically speaking.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling, while the rounding top is still visible. Therefore, this shows that the short term movement for the KLCI is still consolidating, until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom.

Despite the resistance at 972 level, the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band with the Bollinger Bands Width re-expanding, it would be another bullish signal for the KLCI, thus the KLCI is likely to resume its current rally.

综合指数 2009年 4月 17日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数遇到200天的移动平均线（MA）的阻力，由于200天MA是综指熊市及牛市的分水岭，是一个重要的指标。当综指到达了此阻力后，综指出现乏力的迹象（小阴阳烛），再加上成交量戏剧性的下挫，所以虽然综指在200天MA水平闭市，不过综指能否成功站稳在200天MA上还是有待确认。

综指当前的阻力水平是972点左右的水平，这与200天MA接近，所以阻力倍增，支持水平则落在937点的胜图自动费氏线及T1上升趋势线。另一方面，布林频带在周五只打开3%，这打开的幅度不足于确认综指是否成功突破200天MA的讯号。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量明显的减少48.5%，惟还是保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场交投虽然减退，但还是有一度的承接力吸纳套利的卖压。另一方面，当综指进入调整巩固格局时若成交量减少的话，一般上表示市场没有出现惊慌抛售的现象，所以在技术分析的角度来看，是一个健康的调整格局。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）进一步的下滑，进一步形成圆顶（Rounding Top）的讯号，这表示综指目前正处于短期巩固的格局，直到平均乖离振荡指标回升形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

虽然综指周五微扬0.4%，但是整体来说还是属于上扬的格局，从平均乖离继续在正值区域上扬可看出。无论如何综指短期继续出现零星的套利活动，使到综指上扬的趋势缓慢下来。无论如何，在综指调整巩固后，若综指还是处于布林中频带以上的话，综指还是有望更上一层楼。