TECHNICAL ANALTSIS Composite Index 28/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 28日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 28/04/2009

On Tuesday, the KLCI lost 14.42 points to close at 965.70 points, breaking the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 973 Fibonacci Retracement support. Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI is still at 993 and 1000 psychological level, while the support is at 959 Fibonacci Retracement and the 200-day Moving Average line. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 20% on Tuesday, suggesting the KLCI is still having its technical correction. Nevertheless, since the 959 FR is very closed to the 200-day MA level, it is likely to be a reliable support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.9%. The decline of volume is typical during the consolidation of technical correction. This is because while the market is still taking a pause with uncertainties, most investors are staying on the sidelines. However, total market volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, which is an important ingredient if the KLCI were to maintain its uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% as well as 50% level, suggesting the short term bullishness has ended, and a technical correction stage for the KLCI. If the Stochastic should continue to decline and breaks below 30% level, the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be on the weaker side.

For now, the KLCI is still under its technical correction stage while the uptrend has not been violated. However, the fluctuation of the KLCI for this two days has been high, which is usually not the most healthy type of technical correction. Anyhow, if the KLCI should rebound from the 200-day MA, there is a good chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend; other wise, if the KLCI should break below the 200-day MA, it would have ended the current uptrend, and more downside risk for the KLCI can be expected.

综合指数 2009年 4月 28日

如图所示，综合指数周二进一步下跌，滑落14.42点以965.70点挂收，跌破了973点的胜图自动费氏支持线及布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态支持水平。综指当前的阻力水平依然是993点胜图自动费氏线及1000点的心理阻力水平，支持水平则是959点的胜图自动费氏线及200天移动平均线（MA）。

如图中箭头A所示，959点的胜图自动费氏线与200天移动平均线相当接近，所以支持力量倍增，所以有望成为综指的支持水平. 布林频带周二收窄20%，这表示综指目前继续处于调整的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二减少25.9%，不过还是高于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。成交量减少是综指在巩固或调整的典型现象，这是因为投资者在市场还没有明确指引时保持场外观望所致。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%及50%的水平，这表示综指的短期涨势结束，进入技术调整的格局。

综指目前处于技术调整中，不过这并不代表走势已转为跌势，这是因为综指在993至1000点虽然有相当大的阻力，不过还是守住200天MA的水平。总的来说，若综指短期内回弹到布林中频带以上的话，综指有望恢复短期的涨势，反之若综指进一步下跌并跌破200天MA的话，综指的牛市将不能形成，那综指涨势将结束，有形成跌势的风险。