TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 27日 / Composite Index 27/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 27日
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周一再度上探993点的胜图自动费氏线，惟综指再度无功而返，下滑12.56点并回补周五的缺口，这表示综指出现比较大的技术调整。综指当前的阻力水平依然是993点胜图自动费氏线及1000天的心理阻力水平，支持水平则落在972胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄7%，这表示综指目前还是属于调整中的格局，所以布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）是综指当前的动态支持水平，瘦弱综指跌破布林中频带的话，那综指将有转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量稍微增加1.4%，使到成交量继续保持在40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上。由于综指下跌，周一偏高的成交量表示综指在993点及1000点有着强的阻力。无论如何，只要成交量能够维持在40天成交量平均值以上的话，那市场还是有足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）从100%跌破90%水平，这是综指短期出现技术调整的讯号，不过随机指标还是处于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期还未确认转弱，只是属于纯技术调整。换句话说，若随机指标跌破70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有进一步走低的趋势，直到随机指标重返70%以上为止。

综指周一出现的技术调整近期算是最大幅度的一次，这是因为综指处于短期超买的状态已久所致。若综指接下来跌破布林中频带的话，那综指将有进一步转弱的风险，惟趋势要等到布林频带再度打开才能被确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 27/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated 12.56 points, closing the Continuous Gap on Friday, this is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 993 Fibonacci Retracement and the 1000 mark, while the support is still at 972 FR.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 7%, suggesting that the KLCI is still in a consolidation or technical correction stage. Nevertheless, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T1 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.4%, with volume still higher above the 40-day VMA level. Since the KLCI ended lower on Monday, the increased of volume suggests that the KLCI resistance at 993 and the 1000 level is relatively stronger. Nevertheless, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level, the market is still well-participated.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 90% after touching 100%, which is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. Since the Stochastic is basically still above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned bearish yet.

The KLCI has its relatively biggest technical correction in recently weeks, this is because that the KLCI has been staying in over-bought condition for quiet sometimes. Nevertheless, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width is also suggesting that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the new movement shall only be revealed when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.