TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 01/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 1日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 01/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the downtrend line, closing 11.63 points higher on Wednesday. Currently, the KLCI is set to test the 885 Fibonacci Retracement resistance while supports for the KLCI remains at the 869 Fibonacci Retracement as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, suggesting that the KLCI is still under its consolidating stage. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is now positive biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 3% on Wednesday, but still reaching the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still relatively active.

Nevertheless, if the KLCI should attempt to break the 885 Fibonacci Retracement, more volume is needed to confirm the breakout.

As circled at C, the Stochastic returned to above 70% level, re-entering the short term bullish region. This suggests that the market movement for the short term is now bullish biased. Basically, as long as the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be bullish biased.

In conclusion, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band. However, more volume is needed if the KLCI should break away from its consolidation and resume its rally, and of course, the Bollinger Bands Width would have to expands to signal a breakout of the consolidation.

综合指数 2009年 4月 1日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数再度上扬突破下降趋势线（Downtrend Line），这表示综指摆脱了自1月7日来的跌势。综指当前的支持水平落在869点的胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），阻力水平则是885点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，虽然综指周三上扬，但布林频带（Bollinger Bands）依然处于收窄的状况，这表示综指并未完全摆脱调整巩固的格局，这表示综指是否能够恢复转强还是有待确认。换句话说，只要布林频带再度打开的话，那综指上扬的趋势将获得布林频带的确认。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然马股总成交量周三稍微减少3%，惟依然达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示目前市场的交投继续属于活跃。无论如何，若成交量能够进一步增加的话，那将有助于综指上探885点的阻力水平，进入上扬的趋势。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬突破70%水平，这表示综指恢复短期上扬的格局。通常只要随机指标接下来能够保持在70%水平以上的话，那综指短期的后市将有望走高。

由于布林频带还未打开，这表示综指目前仍然在酝酿着一个新的走势。无论如何，综指已经处于布林中频带以上，这显示综指转强的机会浓厚，目前只欠布林频带重新打开及成交量增加来确认上扬的讯号。