TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 2日 / Composite Index 02/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 2日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数自周三突破下降趋势线后形成转强趋势，综指周四更跳空上扬突破885点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，全日上扬20.89点或2.4%。综指目前的支持水平上移至885点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线，综指是闭市时精确的在此水平遇阻（参考箭头A）。

如图所示，综指出现较高的低（Higher-Low），所以有望形成T1线所示的涨势（Uptrend）。图中所示的14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average )将成为综指上扬的动态支持水平（Dynamic Support），这也是追踪止损（Trailing Stop）的重要指标。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量暴涨126.7%，这表示了市场有足够的购兴来吸纳卖压，所以有助于综指继续转强。通常成交量只要能保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上的话，综指上扬趋势有望持续。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于70%水平以上，表示综指短期还是处于短期强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指在技术调整后一直受到布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的扶持，继续的为当前的涨势保温，这也是为何布林频带成为技术分析的主要指标。由于综指目前持续转强，通常分析师将转用另一个主要指标（Primary Indicator），就是加权移动平均线为综指上扬的追踪止损指标。接下来只要综指继续在上扬的加权移动平均线获得扶持的话，那综指后市将继续看高一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 02/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the 885 Fibonacci Retracement with a opening gap on Thursday, closing 20.89 points higher to 905.07 points. Therefore, the support for the KLCI is at 885 Fibonacci Retracement (CHANGE IN POLARITY PRINCIPLE WHERE RESISTANCE TURNS SUPPORT AND VICE-VERSA) while the immediate resistance is at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI formed a higher-low, suggesting a formation of an uptrend as indicated by the T1 line. Therefore, 14, 21, 31 EMA shall be used as the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 126.7% on Thursday, suggesting an increased of market participation with more buying interests.

Provided that the volume could remain above 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is likely to continue, which would help to sustain the KLCI uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

Since the KLCI has formed a higher-low, which is an important characteristic of an uptrend, we shall apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as the trailing stop reference. In short, as long as the KLCI is still above the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend is expected to continue.