More Multi-Year Highs for the Dow, SPX as Summertime Rally Continues

08 Sept 2012 Wall Street end the shortened week on a bullish note
U.S. stocks clung to the flatline and stayed near multiyear highs Friday as disappointment over the August jobs report was countered by hopes the gloomy data could give the Federal Reserve further reason to unleash a third round of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) drifted below breakeven before lunchtime, but battled its way back into the black in the last minutes of trading. With that, the blue-chip barometer secured a respectable return  of 1.65% for the week.

The markets will be laser focused on the Federal Reserve next week, anxiously awaiting word on whether the central bank will initiate another round of economic stimulus.

The Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets most Fed policy, is meeting Wednesday and Thursday and a statement is due at the end of the second day. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference Thursday afternoon.

Stock markets are all hoping for another round of quantitative easing, in which the Fed buys      U.S. securities in an effort to goose the stumbling U.S. economy. Friday’s dismal labor report which revealed that just 96,000 jobs were created in August only boosted hopes among investors for QE III.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI – 13,306.64) was rather flat all session long, but found itself up 14.6 points, or 0.1%, by the closing bell. The Dow posted its best daily settlement since December 2007. Half of the 30 components slipped into negative territory, with Kraft Foods Inc's (NASDAQ:KFT) 5.5% loss pacing the laggards. On the other hand, the 15 outperformers were led higher by Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) 5.4% gain. During the holiday-shortened week, the Dow enjoyed a 1.65% rise.

 

Adding 5.8 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,437.92) prolonged its stay in the black today and closed at a fresh four-year high. Plus, the SPX marked its best daily close since January 2008. For the week, the broad-market index climbed 2.2%.

 

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 3,136.42) enjoyed another multi-year high run, touching 3,139.61 in intraday action -- its loftiest price since mid-November 2000. And after the dust cleared, the tech-rich barometer eked out a fractional win. The COMP turned in the best weekly performance of its peers, rallying 2.3%.

For every stock sliding in New York Friday, more than two gained on the New York StockExchange, where nearly 680 million shares had traded. Composite volume reached 3.7 billion.

 

HAPPY WEEKEND

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 30-08-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-08-30

FBMKLCI 30 August 2012

On Thursday, the FBMKLCI was mostly traded in a narrow range, with the exception of a rally after 4pm, which pushed the FBMKLCI up to 1650.85 points. However, at the close, the FBMKLCI only managed to secure a gain of 0.53 of a point, closing at 1646.11 points. Resistance for the FBMKLCI remains at 1655 while the support is the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as indicated by A.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 8.9%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. But due to the strong profit taking activities, losers outnumbered gainers by 453 to 280, the higher volume may actually imply stronger selling pressure.

 

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still falling, suggesting that the short-term movement of the FBMKLCI is still losing strength. The weakening short-term movement is expected to continue until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom.

 

In conclusion, the FBMKLCI is still consolidating, while testing its dynamic support of the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Technically, the uptrend is still intact, but if profit is still strong, it would have a negative impact to the sustainability of the uptrend.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-08-30

富时大马综合指数周四都在窄幅中波动，惟在下午四时后一度上扬至1650.85点的全日最高。不过，综指最后还是只能以1646.11点挂收，按日微扬0.53点。综指阻力依然是1655点的水平。支持水平则是如图中箭头A所示的14、21、31天EMA动态支持线。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周四增加8.94%，而成交量也继续维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平以上。不过，由于马股套利活动非常的活跃，全日下跌股项远远超过上升股项（453跌/280涨），因此成交量的增加也反映出投资者踊跃套利的活动。

 

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续的下滑，这表示综指短期的走势还是稍微偏弱的，直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

 

总的来说，综指继续在盘整格局中，同时试探14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线。以技术而言，综指涨势虽然还未受到破坏，但是市场的套利活动还是相当的活跃。若套利活动继续偏高的话，那将会对马股维持在涨势带来威胁。

 

祝你好运

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 2日 / Composite Index 02/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 2日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数自周三突破下降趋势线后形成转强趋势，综指周四更跳空上扬突破885点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，全日上扬20.89点或2.4%。综指目前的支持水平上移至885点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线，综指是闭市时精确的在此水平遇阻（参考箭头A）。

如图所示，综指出现较高的低（Higher-Low），所以有望形成T1线所示的涨势（Uptrend）。图中所示的14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average )将成为综指上扬的动态支持水平（Dynamic Support），这也是追踪止损（Trailing Stop）的重要指标。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量暴涨126.7%，这表示了市场有足够的购兴来吸纳卖压，所以有助于综指继续转强。通常成交量只要能保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上的话，综指上扬趋势有望持续。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于70%水平以上，表示综指短期还是处于短期强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指在技术调整后一直受到布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的扶持，继续的为当前的涨势保温，这也是为何布林频带成为技术分析的主要指标。由于综指目前持续转强，通常分析师将转用另一个主要指标（Primary Indicator），就是加权移动平均线为综指上扬的追踪止损指标。接下来只要综指继续在上扬的加权移动平均线获得扶持的话，那综指后市将继续看高一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 02/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the 885 Fibonacci Retracement with a opening gap on Thursday, closing 20.89 points higher to 905.07 points. Therefore, the support for the KLCI is at 885 Fibonacci Retracement (CHANGE IN POLARITY PRINCIPLE WHERE RESISTANCE TURNS SUPPORT AND VICE-VERSA) while the immediate resistance is at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI formed a higher-low, suggesting a formation of an uptrend as indicated by the T1 line. Therefore, 14, 21, 31 EMA shall be used as the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 126.7% on Thursday, suggesting an increased of market participation with more buying interests.

Provided that the volume could remain above 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is likely to continue, which would help to sustain the KLCI uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

Since the KLCI has formed a higher-low, which is an important characteristic of an uptrend, we shall apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as the trailing stop reference. In short, as long as the KLCI is still above the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend is expected to continue.