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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

ZLBT Special Report >>> The EURO Hits 12 Months Low; French Fries Anyone?

EUR/USD
The euro has lost about 7% against the dollar this year. Institutional investors sold euros this month at the fastest pace since the second half of 2008, when the euro fell more than 25% versus the dollar

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has tentatively broken down below key support in the 1.3100 price region, establishing a new 12-month low in the process. This bearish break has also confirmed a continuation of the strong downtrend that has been in place since December 2009.

With continued bearishness off the current breakdown, price could target further downside support in the 1.2900 price region. On a longer-term basis within the context of the continuing downtrend in this currency pair, a major downside support target resides in the 1.2500 price region.

More French Fries With 1EURO

Overall, French banks have the greatest exposure to Greek debt among European lenders, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) -- $78.8 billion of the $193.1 billion of total claims European banks have on Greece. Credit Agricole and Societe Generale are among individual European banks most exposed to Greece's financial crisis.

France's banking sector has the second-largest exposure to Portugal and Spain debt loads, after Germany, according to the BIS.
European banks have more at-risk assets in Portugal and Spain than in Greece. European lenders are holding Portugal debt issues of $240.5 billion -- including $47.4 billion by German banks and $44.9 billion by French firms, according to BIS figures from the end of 2009.

All the up-and-down action in the markets related to the euro and the Greek debt crisis may be far from over, too, even though the EU is talking in terms of the "finishing touches" on a bailout package. Those finishing touches have been in place, before being stuck in place, throughout 2010.

The EURO >>> FLY or FRY?

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