TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年05月24日 / Composite Index 24/05/2010

综合指数 2010年 05月 24日
富时综合指数进一步下滑，如图中箭头A所示，综指一度跌至200天移动平均线（MA）的水平，惟综指精确的在200天MA获得扶持而回弹，综指在闭市时回弹至1272点的费氏线以上，以1273.69点闭市，所以综指当前的支持水平仍然是1272点的费氏线，阻力水平亦继续的处于1287.15点及1302点的费氏线。

目前布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度为29%，这表示布林频带打开的幅度有减低的迹象，若布林频带开始收窄，那综指将有望出现技术反弹，届时布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将是综指反弹的第一目标。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量下降25.3%，这使到成交量再度低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这意味着整体市场在综指下跌了超过5%后开始出现淡静的格局，这通常发生在综指横摆巩固或走软的时候。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）的%K线上扬突破%D线，这显示综指有出现技术回弹的迹象，惟只要随机指标继续低于30%的话，那任何的上扬走势只能算是技术反弹而已，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

总的来说，综指延续上周的跌势，综指在盘中一度跌破200天MA，这是综指熊市及牛市的分水岭，所幸的是综指在此移动平均线获得扶持而回弹，接下来综指若能维持在200天MA以上，那综指将不至于确认形成跌势；换句话说，若综指跌破200天MA，综指将有进入熊市的风险。

Composite Index 24/05/2010
On Monday, the KLCI ended lower, and tested the 200-day Moving Average line. As indicated by A, the KLCI is precisely supported by the 200-day Moving Average line, and closed at 1273.69 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1272 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1287.15 followed by 1302 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

The Bollinger Bands expanded 29%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the technical outlook remains weak, until Bollinger Bands should begin to contract.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.3%, with volume obviously below the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this shows that the market is lightly participated, thus the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength without sufficient buying interests.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic %K line crosses above the %D line, which is an early signal of a possible technical rebound. However, still, the Stochastic has to break above 30%, in order to signal a technical rebound for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the KLCI downtrend remains intact, while testing the 200-day MA. If the KLCI should break below 200-day MA, it would be a common consensus that the KLCI would be entering a bearish market.