TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 13/05/2010 / 综合指数 2010年05月13日

Composite Index 13/05/2010
On Thursday, the FBM KLCI gained 2.82 points to close at 1346.92 points, and the KLCI is set to test the 1350 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. If the KLCI could break above this level, more upside movement is expected. Nevertheless, overhead resistance are found at 1350 to 1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are at 1334 followed by 1320 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by A, the KLCI stays above the Bollinger Middle Band, with the Bollinger Bands expanding 3%, therefore, the immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 35.8% with volume getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. Generally, if volume should stay firmly above the 40-day VMA level, the overall market sentiment is expected to improve.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70%, as the short term bullish signal remains intact, and the short term bullish movement is expected to carry on until the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

In conclusion, despite the increased of volume, the Bollinger Bands has not shown any clear bullish signal yet, and therefore, the KLCI bullish signal is yet to be confirmed.

综合指数 2010年 05月 13日
富时综合指数进一步上扬2.82点，以1346.92点闭市，综指接下来有望上探1350点的费氏阻力线，若综指能成功上扬突破1350点的话，综指的后市将有望更上一层楼；由于综指的另一道阻力水平处于1354点的费氏线，与1350点接近，形成了一个阻力区域，综指目前的支持水平则落在1334点及1320点的费氏线。

如图中箭头A所示，综指继续处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以虽然布林频带只稍微打开3%，综指仍然稍微上扬。一般上综指将继续维持偏强的格局。直到综指跌破布林中频带为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加35.8%，这使到成交量将近达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示投资者开始回笼。接下来若综指继续走强，而成交量又能成功的企于40天成交量平均线以上，那综指上扬的趋势将有望维持下去。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续上扬，所以综指的短期走势目前是属于上扬的格局中；以技术而言，综指的短期走势将一直维持目前的转强趋势，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，虽然成交量增加表示投资者对市场的信心开始增加，不过由于布林频带并未明显的打开，所以目前还是未能完全确认综指的涨势，不过接下来只要布林频带开始明显的打开，而综指又能继续处于布林中频带以上，综指将有望开始新的一轮涨势。