FBMKLCI Weekly Market AnalysisTHE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Composite Index (FBM KLCI) staged a technical rebound on Thursday after three days of technical pullback over the week. It continued to stay below its psychological resistance of 1,300 when it closed at 1,269.16 points on Thursday.
For the week ended on the 27th of May, 2010, the KLCI loss a total of 16.57 points or 1.3%, with a weekly high of 1282.96 and a weekly low of 1243.86 points, total volume was 3,397,054,800 shares, downed 9.6%.
Main Chart
After breaking below the L2 line of the Ascending Wedge, the KLCI fell heavily, and broke below the 200-day Moving Average line. As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded on Thursday, and now the KLCI is testing the 200-day Moving Average line. If the KLCI should return to above the 200-day MA, it could avoid entering the bear market. Otherwise, with the KLCI staying below 200-day MA, the risk of entering a bear market is relatively high.
Volume
As indicated by B, total market volume was slightly higher, with volume touching the 40-day VMA level, suggesting some improvement in market participation. However, volume has to maintain above the 40-day VMA level in order to sustain the KLCI rebound. Or else, there won't be sufficient inflow of fresh capital to offset the selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands
After expanded for 6 days, the Bollinger Bands contracted for the first time on Thursday, suggesting that the KLCI might take pause from the down fall. However, with the KLCI still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the bearish side, and the Bollinger Middle Band would also serve as a dynamic resistance for the KLCI.
MACD
Despite the MACD histogram is ticking slightly higher, while showing a chance of a Rounding Bottom formation, the MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting that the current movement of the KLCI is still bearish dominant.
RSI
Despite the strong rebound on Thursday, the RSI remained below 30%, thus showing that the mid term strength of the KLCI is still weak.
Stochastic
After staying below 10% level, the Stochastic rebounded, but it has not broken above 30%, thus the short term bearish signal is still in place. Generally, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level, in order to break away from the short term bearish territory.
In a Nut Shell
The KLCI is now testing the 200-day MA, which is a generally a divider between a bear and a bull market. If the KLCI should failed to break above the 200-day MA, the risk of entering a bear market is still relatively high.
FBMKLCI 每周技术分析
富时综合指数上周以最高点1282.96点开市，综指全周最低水平是1243.86点，综指上周以1269.16点闭市，按周下跌16.57点或1.3%，全周总成交量为33亿9705万4800股，按周减少9.6%.
Main Chart
After breaking below the L2 line of the Ascending Wedge, the KLCI fell heavily, and broke below the 200-day Moving Average line. As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded on Thursday, and now the KLCI is testing the 200-day Moving Average line. If the KLCI should return to above the 200-day MA, it could avoid entering the bear market. Otherwise, with the KLCI staying below 200-day MA, the risk of entering a bear market is relatively high.
Volume
As indicated by B, total market volume was slightly higher, with volume touching the 40-day VMA level, suggesting some improvement in market participation. However, volume has to maintain above the 40-day VMA level in order to sustain the KLCI rebound. Or else, there won't be sufficient inflow of fresh capital to offset the selling pressure.
Bollinger BandsAfter expanded for 6 days, the Bollinger Bands contracted for the first time on Thursday, suggesting that the KLCI might take pause from the down fall. However, with the KLCI still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the bearish side, and the Bollinger Middle Band would also serve as a dynamic resistance for the KLCI.
MACD
Despite the MACD histogram is ticking slightly higher, while showing a chance of a Rounding Bottom formation, the MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting that the current movement of the KLCI is still bearish dominant.
RSI
Despite the strong rebound on Thursday, the RSI remained below 30%, thus showing that the mid term strength of the KLCI is still weak.
Stochastic
After staying below 10% level, the Stochastic rebounded, but it has not broken above 30%, thus the short term bearish signal is still in place. Generally, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level, in order to break away from the short term bearish territory.
In a Nut Shell
The KLCI is now testing the 200-day MA, which is a generally a divider between a bear and a bull market. If the KLCI should failed to break above the 200-day MA, the risk of entering a bear market is still relatively high.
FBMKLCI 每周技术分析富时综合指数上周以最高点1282.96点开市，综指全周最低水平是1243.86点，综指上周以1269.16点闭市，按周下跌16.57点或1.3%，全周总成交量为33亿9705万4800股，按周减少9.6%.
主要指标－图形
自综指跌破了L2的趋势线后，综指跌势犹若兵败如山倒，综指节节下跌，并跌破了200天的移动平均线（MA），所以综指不但有进一步转弱的风险，而且也有步入熊市的风险，因为200天MA是熊市及牛市的分水岭。无论如何，在上周四综指出现技术回弹，综指回弹至200天MA的水平（参考箭头A），所以接下来若综指能继续上扬，并且企稳于200天MA以上，那综指将有望避开进入熊市的窘境。
布林频带
布林频带（Bollinger Band）上周继续打开，而综指亦始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指上周继续下跌。所幸的是布林频带上周四开始收窄，所以这引发了综指回弹，一般上综指回弹的第一目标是布林中频带，这也将是综指的动态阻力水平。
技术指标
成交量
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周成功的增加至40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示有投资者选择趁低吸购以及进行短线交易，所以市场交投仍然活跃，若成交量能继续保持在40天平均值，那市场的承接力量将能增加，这将有助于吸纳连续涌现的卖压，使到综指不至于进一步转弱。
平均乖离
平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周继续在零轴以下下滑，所以综指的短期走势亦继续走低，无论如何，在上周四，振荡指标第一次出现收短的情形，这显示振荡指标有形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）的迹象。一般上，若振荡指标出现圆底，这意味着综指的短期走势有止跌回弹的可能。
胜图强弱指标
胜图强弱指标（RSI）上周维持在30%的水平，这显示综指的中期走势继续的处于下跌的格局，以技术而言，综指的转强走势将继续趋软，直到胜图强弱指标上扬突破30%为止。
随机指标
随机指标（Stochastic）上周一度跌破10%的水平，这使到综指的短期走势出现超卖的格局，所以综指在周四出现技术回弹，无论如何，目前综指只算是纯技术反弹，直到随机指标能上扬突破30%为止。
总结
综指上周跌破了200天MA的熊市及牛市分水岭，这使到综指的中长期走势有形成熊市的迹象，无论如何，综指在上周四回弹，综指精确的回到200天MA。接下来若综指能突破并且维持在200天MA以上，再加上布林频带收窄，那综指将有望止跌转强，避开形成熊市及进一步下跌。
自综指跌破了L2的趋势线后，综指跌势犹若兵败如山倒，综指节节下跌，并跌破了200天的移动平均线（MA），所以综指不但有进一步转弱的风险，而且也有步入熊市的风险，因为200天MA是熊市及牛市的分水岭。无论如何，在上周四综指出现技术回弹，综指回弹至200天MA的水平（参考箭头A），所以接下来若综指能继续上扬，并且企稳于200天MA以上，那综指将有望避开进入熊市的窘境。
布林频带
布林频带（Bollinger Band）上周继续打开，而综指亦始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指上周继续下跌。所幸的是布林频带上周四开始收窄，所以这引发了综指回弹，一般上综指回弹的第一目标是布林中频带，这也将是综指的动态阻力水平。
技术指标
成交量
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周成功的增加至40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示有投资者选择趁低吸购以及进行短线交易，所以市场交投仍然活跃，若成交量能继续保持在40天平均值，那市场的承接力量将能增加，这将有助于吸纳连续涌现的卖压，使到综指不至于进一步转弱。
平均乖离平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周继续在零轴以下下滑，所以综指的短期走势亦继续走低，无论如何，在上周四，振荡指标第一次出现收短的情形，这显示振荡指标有形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）的迹象。一般上，若振荡指标出现圆底，这意味着综指的短期走势有止跌回弹的可能。
胜图强弱指标
胜图强弱指标（RSI）上周维持在30%的水平，这显示综指的中期走势继续的处于下跌的格局，以技术而言，综指的转强走势将继续趋软，直到胜图强弱指标上扬突破30%为止。
随机指标
随机指标（Stochastic）上周一度跌破10%的水平，这使到综指的短期走势出现超卖的格局，所以综指在周四出现技术回弹，无论如何，目前综指只算是纯技术反弹，直到随机指标能上扬突破30%为止。
总结
综指上周跌破了200天MA的熊市及牛市分水岭，这使到综指的中长期走势有形成熊市的迹象，无论如何，综指在上周四回弹，综指精确的回到200天MA。接下来若综指能突破并且维持在200天MA以上，再加上布林频带收窄，那综指将有望止跌转强，避开形成熊市及进一步下跌。
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