TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 06/05/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 05月 06日

Composite Index 06/05/2010
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI ended 3.78 points lower to close at 1331.87. Support for the KLCI is at 1320.29 while the resistance remains at 1334 followed by 1350 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band, but retreated, and therefore, still staying below the Bollinger Middle Band. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 4%, thus giving a negative technical outlook for the KLCI. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand with the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside movement is expected for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 4.4%, and getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. Nevertheless, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, with volume increasing or else, if market volume should remains low, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is now testing the 30% level, and if the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would enter the short term bearish territory, thus the short term market movement of the KLCI is expected to be bearish biased.

In conclusion, technical indicators are suggesting some weaker signals for the KLCI, and with the KLCI staying at the top of the Ascending Wedge, there is a risk of a reversal.

综合指数 2010年 05月 06日
如图所示，富时综合指数继续走低，综指按日下滑3.78点，以1331.87点闭市，由于综指跌破了1334点的费氏线，所以综指接下来的支持水平落在1320.29点，阻力水平则是1334点及1350点的费氏线。

如图中箭头A所示，综指一度上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态阻力线，惟综指未能成功突破此阻力线，综指随后回软，继续低于布林中频带。另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开4%，打开幅度并不明显，所以综指还不至于形成一个跌势。换句话说，若接下来布林频带开始明显的打开，而综指始终处于布林中频带以下，那综指将会被确认形成一个跌势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量上扬4.4%，这表示市场交投继续活跃，成交量已非常接近40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）。成交量目前达到40天平均值显示虽然投资者在利空消息下继续离场，不过仍然有投资者愿意接货，这是综指后市不明朗或熊市牛市角力的现象。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌至30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势继续转弱，接下来若随机指标跌破30%，那综指的短期走势将出现下跌的趋势，直到随机指标回弹至30%以上为止。

总的来说，技术指标继续显示综指有转弱的风险，惟布林频带并未打开，所以仍然未能确认综指下跌的讯号。另一方面，综指目前正处于图中L1及L2的上升楔形内，由于综指已经接近楔形的尾端，所以综指在短期内将摆脱目前巩固的格局而出现新趋势。以技术而言，综指的新趋势将取决于综指突破此楔形的位置。

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