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Friday, May 14, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 14/05/2010 / 综合指数 2010年05月14日

Composite Index 14/05/2010
On Friday, the KLCI opened gap down, and loss 7.62 points to close at 1339.30 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1334 followed by 1320 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, resistance is at 1350 to 1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band, while managed to stay at the Bollinger Middle Band level. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 2%, suggesting that the KLCI is still trendless.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 24%, with volume staying below 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this shows that the overall market is still very quiet, thus implying that investors' confidence is relatively low.

As circled at C, the Stochastic touched 70% level. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction, or the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weakening.

In conclusion, external market performance is pulling down the KLCI. But since the KLCI is still staying at the Bollinger Middle Band, it has not formed a downtrend yet. In short, the KLCI is expected to consolidate until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

综合指数 2010年 05月 14日
富时综指指数再度出现开市缺口(Gap),综指按日下滑7.62点,以1339.30点闭市,综指当前的支持水平落在1334点及1320点的费氏线,阻力水平则维持于1350至1354点之间的阻力区域。
如图所示,综指一度跌至布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),惟综指精确的在布林中频带上获得扶持,这是综指当前的动态支持线。另外,由于布林频带(Bollinger Bands)收窄2%,所以综指目前继续处于调整巩固中,直到布林频带明显的打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量锐减24.7%,这使到成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这是市场继续处于淡静的格局,这也是综指横摆巩固时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌至70%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势出现转弱的风险,接下来若随机指标不能在70%的水平回弹,那综指将有进一步下跌的风险。

总的来说,综指的走势继续受到外围市场的影响,综指再度出现开市缺口,无论如何,由于综指目前处于布林中频带的水平,这显示综指的后市仍然不明确,再加上布林频带收窄,所以综指技术上正在酝酿着一个新的趋势,而新趋势将在布林频带再度打开时浮现,而新趋势则取决与综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。


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