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Monday, May 10, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 10/05/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 05月 10日

Composite Index 10/05/2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded further on Monday, and now testing the Bollinger Middle Band. The KLCI closed at 1333.97 points, gaining 1.08 points. The immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1334 followed by the 1350 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1320 followed by 1300 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above,the Bollinger Bands hardly expanded, suggesting that the expansion rate was not significant to signal any movement for the KLCI, thus the market is still trendless for the moment.

As indicated by A, total market volume declined 14.1%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level, and therefore, the market is lightly participated, while implying that investors' confidence is still low. Therefore, without sufficient market participation, the market , or the KLCI is unlikely to pick up its strength.

As circled at C, the RSI has been moving around 50% level for some time, suggesting that the KLCI has been consolidating while, until now, still has not made up a clear trend yet. Technically, the RSI has to either break above 70% or below 30% to suggests a direction for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the KLCI remains in the Wedge (L1 and L2) while the direction is still unclear with low volume. In short, the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands shall give a good idea of where the KLCI will be heading to.

综合指数 2010年 05月 10日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数进一步回弹,综指更一度上探至布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),惟综指精确的在布林中频带遇阻,综指随后回软,以1333.97点闭市,按日只上扬1.08点。

由于1334点曾是综指的支持及阻力费氏水平,所以此水平接下来继续成为综指当前的阻力水平,综指另一道阻力水平是1350点的费氏线;支持水平则落在1320点及1300点的费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开的幅度为3%,这显示布林频带仍然未明显的打开,所以综指的后市仍然不明确,直到布林频带明显的打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量下跌14.1%,这使到成交量再度低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这显示市场交投并不活跃,仍然有投资者对综指的后市抱着观望的态度,无论如何,只要在综指上扬时,成交量能进一步增加,那综指将有望平稳的上扬。

如图中C圈所示,胜图强弱指标在50%的水平徘徊一段时日,这与综指近期整体上偏向横摆的趋势一致;目前虽然指标重新回到50%以上的水平,不过仍然还未发出综指中期趋势的讯号,直到指标上扬达到70%或跌破30%为止。

总的来说,综指仍然维持在L1及L2形成的楔形中,由于综指已接近楔形的尾端,这是综指巩固盘整走势将结束的讯号,无论如何,综指新趋势将取决于综指突破楔形的方向,综指的新趋势亦能在布林频带明显的打开时,综指处于布林中频带的相应位置看出。

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