TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2010年 05月 26日/ Composite Index 26/05/2010

综合指数 2010年 05月 26日
富时综合指数一度回弹并上扬10.14点或0.81%，突破了1254点的费氏阻力线，惟在短线投资者套利及一些投资者止损的卖压下，综指闭市反而下跌1.19点，以1248.94点闭市，重新跌破1254点的费氏线（参考箭头A），所以1254点继续成为综指的阻力水平，支持水平则依然落在1224点的费氏线。

如图所示，综指目前仍然处于200天移动平均线（MA）以下，这显示综指目前长期走势仍然趋软，直到综指重新回到200天MA上为止。以技术而言，若综指不能短期内回弹至200天MA以上，那综指将有步入熊市的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微减少1.2%，这使到成交量仍然维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这是显示市场交投仍然活跃，若成交量能继续保持在40天平均值，那市场的承接力量将能增加，这将有助于吸纳连续涌现的卖压，使到综指不至于进一步转弱。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续低于10%，这是综指短期走势继续超卖的迹象，当然超卖接超卖是典型的熊市状态，所以若随机指标未能上扬突破30%，那综指的后市将继续看低一线。

综指已经第二的交易日低于在1267.55点的200天的移动平均线，若综指继续维持目前的趋势，那综指将越来越接近确认步入熊市的格局。总的来说，虽然综指仍然受到外围因素的影响，不过若综指能回弹至200天MA以上，这将有助于综指避开长期的熊市。

Composite Index 26/05/2010
Despite opening higher on Wednesday, the KLCI failed to sustain its early gain as investors were rushing to cash out their positions, as a result, the KLCI loss 1.19 points, to close at 1248.94 points, breaking below the 1254 level again, as indicated by A. Therefore, 1254 is now the resistance again while the support is at 1224 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI remains below 200-day MA, which suggesting that the KLCI long term movement is getting weaker, while moving towards a bear market.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 1.2%, while still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the bargain buying is still active. If the KLCI should rebound with volume above the 40-day VMA level, it would help lift the market sentiment a little.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains below 10%, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is indeed weak. Until the Stochastic could break above 30%, the short term movement of the KLCI remains in place.

In conclusion, the KLCI is now below the 200-day MA for 2 days, and if the KLCI should fail to return to above 200-day MA, the risk of entering a bear market is higher.