TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Composite Index 25/05/2010 / 综合指数 2010年05月25日

Composite Index 25/05/2010
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI breaks below the 200-day Moving Average line, suggesting that the KLCI is entering a bearish market. The KLCI fell 23.56 points to close at 1250.13 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI also break below 1254 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and therefore, this is the current resistance for the KLCI while the next support is seen at 1224 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

The Bollinger Bands expanded 31%, with the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the technical outlook remains bearish biased. Generally, the bearish biased technical outlook shall carry on until the Bollinger Bands should contract.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 42%, despite the KLCI is falling, this suggests some bargain buying, but sellers are selling at lower price, thus implying some increased of selling pressure, thus further dampen the KLCI sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 10%, suggesting that the KLCI short term movement is indeed weak, but now it is getting over-sold again, and therefore, there is a chance of a technical rebound in the near term, but still, the Stochastic has to break above 30%, in order to signal a technical rebound.

In conclusion, since breaking below the L2 line, the KLCI has fallen 6 days, and even breaking below 200-day MA. If the KLCI should fail to return to above 200-day MA, the risk of entering a bear market would be higher.

综合指数 2010年 05月 25日
如图所示，富时综合指数周二开市低于200天移动平均线（MA），这显示综指已经处于弱势中，随后综指进一步下跌23.56点，以1250.13点闭市。如图中箭头A所示，综指跌破1254点的费氏线，这成为了综指接下来的阻力水平，综指当前的支持水平则落在1224点的费氏线。

布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开31%，而综指始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middile Band）以下，所以综指继续下跌。一般上，综指将继续维持目前的跌势，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指下跌1.8%，不过马股成交量反而增加42%，这使到成交量突破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示有投资者选择趁低吸购以及短线交易，惟交投的股价被迅速压低同时也加剧了综指的跌势。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）重新跌破10%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势进一步下滑，不过综指同时也出现短期超卖的迹象，所以综指随后有出现技术反弹的可能，惟若随机指标低于30%的话，那综指的上扬只是属于纯技术反弹，并不算是短期转强的讯号。

总的来说，综指自跌破了L2趋势线后，综指连续下跌了6日，现在亦跌破了200天MA，这显示综指的长期走势有转为熊市的风险。接下来若综指未能短期内回到200天MA以上，那综指的中长期走势将看低一线。