TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 19/05/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 05月 19日

Composite Index 19/05/2010
On Wednesday, the KLCI fell 21.96 points or 1.6%, to close at 1308.23. As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks below 1320 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement and it is the biggest fall in one day since 24th of March, 2008.

Support for the KLCI is now at 1302, which is the 1300 psychological level, while the immediate resistance is at 1320 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement followed by 1350.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 82%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus giving a bearish signal. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand, more bearish movement is expected for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 13.1%, suggested some increased of selling pressure, but not too extreme. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should fall with increasing volume, it usually suggests that the selling pressure was high.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 30%, entering the short term bearish territory, and therefore, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weak, until the Stochastic should break above 30% level.

The re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands suggested a beginning of a new movement, but unfortunately, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, it shows that the new movement is on the negative side.

综合指数 2010年 05月 19日
富时综合指数继续受到全球下跌的影响，综指周三下跌21.96点或1.6%，以1308.23点闭市。如图中箭头A所示，综指在午盘跌破了1320点的费氏支持线后，综指跌势如破竹，使到综指出现自2008年10月24日来的最大单日跌幅。

综指当前的支持水平落在1302点的费氏线，这也与1300点的整数心理支持水平相近，所以将对综指有一定的扶持作用，综指当前的阻力除了是刚跌破的1320点之外是1350点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开82%，而综指始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指形成了一个跌势，接下来综指将继续走低，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加13.1%，这显示市场有一定的抛售活动，惟目前还不太严重，无论如何，若在综指节节下跌时，成交量过高的话，那将会加剧综指的跌势。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破30%的水平，这显示综指出现短期的跌势，所以综指接下来的后市将看低一线，直到随机指标回弹至30%以上为止。

布林频带明显的打开82%，这显示综指出现酝酿已久的趋势，惟由于综指低于布林中频带以及跌破L2的趋势线，所以综指形成一个跌势，以技术而言，综指目前的跌势将持续至布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

CAVEAT EMPTOR

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