Composite Index 17/05/2010The KLCI breaks below the T2 line during intra-day trading, as lead by the negative performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index last Friday. As indicated by A, the KLCI retested the L2 line at the closing of the market, and therefore, the break out is yet to be confirmed.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands continue to contract, contracted 2%, suggesting that the KLCI is actually still consolidating while the market direction is still unclear. But with the KLCI now below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is on the negative side.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 7.2% with market volume below the 40-day VMA level. This again suggests that the market is quiet as investors confidence is still relatively low, and therefore, the KLCI is less likely to gain strength.As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70%, suggesting that the short term bullish signal has ended, and a beginning of a technical correction. If the Stochastic should stay below 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weakening. But with the Bollinger Bands narrowing, the KLCI is expected to fluctuate in narrow range.
In conclusion, the KLCI is affected by the external market performance, and technically, the consolidation remains intact, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands, then only a new movement shall begin.
综合指数 2010年 05月 17日在美国道指再度下挫的影响下，富时综合指数盘中跌破L2的上升趋势线，并且一度走低至1326.96点，由于这是布林下频带（Bollinger Lower Band），所以综指获得扶持后回弹。如图中箭头A所示，综指回弹至L2的水平，所以虽然综指一度跌破L2趋势线，不过基本上目前综指仍然处于L1及L2在组成的上升楔形内。
另一方面，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄2%，所以虽然综指已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，综指仍然未确认下跌的趋势。无论如何，若接下来布林频带开始打开，而综指未能上扬突破布林中频带，那综指将会形成一个下跌的趋势。
如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少7.2%，这使到成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这是综指调整巩固时的典型情形，不过若综指开始转强时，成交量是必须增加至40天平均值，那综指转强的走势才能更稳健。如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%，所以综指的短期走势结束了，接下来若随机指标下探，这将是综指短期走势趋软的讯号，惟若布林频带处于窄小的格局，那综指的短期跌势将不会太大。
总的来说，综指的走势仍然受到道指的牵引，以技术而言，布林频带收窄表示综指正处于调整巩固的格局，直到布林频带明显的打开为止，届时综指将开始一个新趋势，而新趋势将由综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。
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