FBM KLCI : Weekly Analysis 14/05/2010 / 每周技术分析 2010年05月14日

FBM KLCI Weekly Technical Analysis 14/05/2010
For the week ended on the 14h of May, 2010, the KLCI rebounded and gained a total of 6.41 points, with a weekly high of 1348.09 and a weekly low at 1330.96 points, total market volume traded was 3,842,169,600 shares, downed 9.3%.

Main Chart:
The KLCI tested the 1348.09 points, which is very closed to the 1350 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and retreated. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1350~1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1334 followed by 1320 Fibonacci Retracement. Meanwhile, the KLCI remains in the L1 and L2 Ascending Wedge while the direction is still unclear.

Volume:
As indicated by B, total market volume remained below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is quiet, as investors confidence is still relatively low, therefore, the KLCI is unlikely to pickup any strength.

Bollinger Bands:
As of Friday, the Bollinger Bands of the KLCI was contracting, suggesting that the KLCI has failed to continue its bullish biased movement, and now consolidating again. Nevertheless, the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, as indicated by A, thus the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still marginally on the positive side.

MACD:
Until now, the MACD histogram has not broken above the zero level, suggesting that the KLCI strength is basically weak as the MACD line is falling faster than the signal line. Nevertheless, with the MACD line still above the zero level, the overall longer term market movement of the KLCI is still on the positive side.

RSI:
Not much changes on the 14-days Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it is still moving around 50% level. Generally, this suggests that the KLCI is indeed trendless.

Stochastic:
The Stochastic is now testing 70%, and if it should break below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction, or the short term bullish movement has ended.

In a Nut Shell:
Overall, the KLCI has not formed a downtrend yet, but due to the cautious market condition across the globe, the upside movement of the KLCI is also capped by the 1350 level. Therefore, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, with the Bollinger Bands re-expanding, there is a risk of the KLCI to head south.


FBM KLCI 每周技术分析 2010年05月14日
富时综合指数上周以1331.60点开始，综指全周最高水平是1348.09点，最低则是1330.96点。综指上周以1339.30点收市，按周上扬6.41点或0.5%，全周总成交量为38亿4216万9600股，按周减少9.3%

主要指标－图形
综指上周一度上探至1348.09点，惟在1349.92点的费氏线阻力发挥下，综指再度回软，综指当前的阻力水平处于1350点至1354点的阻力区域，支持水平则落在1334点及1320点的费氏线。如图所示，综指目前亦正处于由L1及L2趋势线组成的上升楔形，这是综指盘整的图形，L1是综指的动态阻力线，而L2则是综指的动态支持线。

布林频带
综指上周一度跟随国际市场回弹上扬，并且突破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这使到综指避免进一步下跌的窘境，无论如何，综指上周五再度跌至布林中频带的水平（参考箭头A），这使到综指接下来的走势继续不明确。

技术指标

成交量
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量虽然上周一度接近40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），不过成交量始终未能突破40天成交量的平均值，这是综指横摆巩固是的典型状态。

平均乖离
平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周仍然处于零轴以下，这表示综指的整体走势有转弱的迹象，这也可从平均乖离缓缓的下滑看出，若平均乖离跌破零轴进入负值区域的话，那综指的中长期走势将有进入跌势的风险。

胜图强弱指标
胜图强弱指标（RSI）上周在50%以上的水平徘徊，这表示综指的中期走势处于中和（Neutral）的格局，一般上这也意味着综指的中期走势处于横摆或盘整中。

随机指标
由于布林频带始终的处于窄小的格局中，这表示综指整体上维持盘整的格局，通常这时候随机指标（Stochastic）都会显得过敏，因为随机指标显示的是综指在横摆时的短期走势。

总结
综指仍然受到外围的走势影响，不过整体上综指仍然算是横摆巩固中，由于布林频带处于收窄的格局，这是综指正在酝酿着一个新走势的讯号，惟新的趋势只在布林频带开始明显打开时才会形成，届时综指的新趋势取决于综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。