TECHNICAL ANALYSIS > 综合指数 2010年05月18日/ Composite Index 18/05/2010

综合指数 2010年 05月 18日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数下滑4.10点，以1330.17点闭市，综指当前的支持水平继续维持在1320.29点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1350点至1354点的阻力区域。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄2%，这表示综指目前仍然是属于调整巩固的格局，直到布林频带开始明显的打开为止。无论如何，由于综指目前处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以若在布林频带开始打开时，综指仍然未能上扬突破布林中频带的话，那综指将有确认形成跌势的可能。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加9.1%，不过成交量仍然低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示整体市场仍然属于淡静，这是综指横摆巩固时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破50%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势继续走软，接下来若随机指标跌破30%，那综指的短期走势将有出现跌势的风险，直到随机指标重新回弹至30%以上为止。

总的来说，由于布林频带收窄，所以综指依然维持调整巩固的格局，这亦是综指酝酿新趋势的讯号，以技术而言，综指酝酿的新趋势将在布林频带开始明显打开时浮现，届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将是综指新趋势的方向。

Composite Index 18/05/2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI loss 4.10 points to close at 1330.17 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1320.29 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance remains at 1350 to 1354 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 2%, suggesting that the KLCI is still trendless, while still consolidating, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Nevertheless, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 9.1%, but still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market is still lightly participated, and this usually implies that the investors' confidence is relatively low. Therefore, the KLCI or the market is less likely to pick up any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is falling and breaking below 50%, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is weakening. If the Stochastic should break below 30%, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the Bollinger Bands suggests that the KLCI is still preparing for its new movement, and the it shall reveal its new movement when the Bollinger Bands re-expands, and the direction of the new movement shall be determined by the relative position of the prices, above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.

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