TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 30日 / Composite Index 30/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 30日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周四在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的水平开市，随后节节上扬，最后以990.74点挂收，上扬23.28点或2.4%。综指的阻力水平依然是1000点的主要心理阻力水平，支持水平则是布林中频带的动态支持水平及959点的胜图自动费氏支持线。

如图所示，布林频带周四虽然只打开6%，但由于综指成功重返布林中频带以上，所以只要布林频带接下来能够继续打开的话，综指后市有望看高一线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量明显增加56%，继续维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场的交投不但活跃而且还增加了新的买盘，所以综指有望恢复上扬的趋势，惟接下来成交量必须继续保持在40天的成交量平均值以上。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹，分别上扬突破50%及70%的水平，再次进入短期强势区域里，通常只要随机指标能够保持在70%水平以上的话，综指短期的走势有望转强，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

总的来说，综指在技术调整后精确的在200天移动平均线（MA）止跌反弹，周四更重返布林中频带以上，这表示综指结束了技术调整，不过此讯号要等到布林频带明显的打开来才能确认。无论如何，1000点的心理水平将是综指接下来面对的强力阻力水平，若综指能够突破此阻力水平，再加上市场成交量继续偏高的话，综指有望维持目前上扬的格局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/04/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI opened precisely at the Bollinger Middle Band level, closing 23.28 points higher to 990.74 points. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1000 mark while the Bollinger Middle Band is the dynamic support for the KLCI followed by the 959 Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 6%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is now positive biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, more upside room for the KLCI is expected.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 56%, while remain above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is fueled by more new inflow of fresh capital, thus a positive sign for the KLCI to resume its uptrend. Provided that the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is likely to continue.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded, breaking above 50% as well as the 70% level, re-entering the short term bullish territory. Provided that the Stochastic is above the 70% level, the short term bullish market movement is expected to continue.

After rebounding from the 200-day MA, the KLCI managed to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, which is a good signal, suggesting the KLCI might be resuming its uptrend.

Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, the positive movement of the KLCI is expected to continue. Nevertheless, the 1000 market is still an important resistance level for the KLCI.

Random Stocks Charts >>> Mulpha Petra Tenaga

HAPPY TRADING !!!

BT politicklenewz4u

POLITICKLENEWZ

Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng is confident Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) will win the Penanti by-election on May 31. Declaring full support for PKR candidate Mansor Othman, who is trying his luck for the fourth time to win a seat in Penang, Lim said the seat was for PKR's taking.

• "We are confident of a win and the DAP will work with the other Pakatan Rakyat (PR) parties to ensure there is full support for Mansor in this by-election. "The DAP's election machinery will descend upon Penanti with full force," Lim said at a press conference.

• On Tuesday night, after he was endorsed as the candidate, Mansor had also expressed confidence in winning the seat, even though his previous attempts had been disastrous. He lost the Balik parliamentary seat in 1999 to Zain Omar, in 2004 to Datuk Ariff Shah Omar Shah for the Seberang Jaya state seat and in 2008 to Muhammad Farid Saad for the Pulau Betong state seat.

• When Lim was asked if he endorsed Mansor to be the deputy chief minister 1 (DCM1) as proposed by PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Lim said Anwar had recommended Mansor as the DCM1 choice before he was announced as a candidate.

• Lim was also asked if the presence of former DCM1 Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin would boost PKR's chances in Penanti. "His presence will surely help and not hurt PKR's chances," Lim added.

The Swine Flu Weekend effect >>> Selling Pressure by end-of-day

Our two calls came true yesterday. Firstly, our call for a rebound in the KLCI was justified with the KLCI closing in positive territory yesterday. Our second call which was for the Dow to venture higher after a base building period, came true when the Dow rallied 168 points yesterday.

Dow Jones : Rally triggered by intersection of short term and mid term line The Dow Jones performed exactly as we expected last night. In yesterday’s report, we wrote that after the Dow’s recent base building period, the Dow will venture higher when the red short term line attempts to cut above the blue mid term line. That’s exactly what happened last night when the Dow rallied strongly and even created a new short term high at 8,257. We see the next resistance of the Dow at the 8,400 level.

Swine Flu Watch : Caution Ahead of the weekend
The suspected death toll in Mexico rose to 159, but the number of confirmed deaths from the swine flu was down to 7 from 20 previously. In HK, 5 of the 7 suspected cases have been cleared, while the US saw its first casualty (source: Bloomberg). Yesterday, the World Health
Organization (WHO) also raised the pandemic alert level to Level 5 (source : WHO). Level 5 is the second highest level and basically denotes sustained human-to-human transmission in communities in different geographical locations.

The “weekend effect” is generally typified by a trend of traders selling off positions to avoid any unforeseen negative events in the weekend. The coming “weekend effect” comes with a different twist : firstly, it is an extended weekend due to the Labour Day Holiday tomorrow ; secondly, instead of being “unforeseen”, traders generally expect that the Swine Flu spread may worsen in the weekend. If the Swine Flu spread degenerates into a full fledged outbreak in the weekend, equities markets world wide may get a rude awakening come Monday.

We expect selling pressure to strengthen towards the end of the day as traders seek to avoid any negativity from the Swine Flu spread in the weekend which is continually worsening at this point.

Strategy : Be wary of end of day selling pressure in KLCI
While we maintain our mid term positive view of the KLCI and are also positive of today’s KLCI trading session, we are wary of the end-of-day selling pressure in the KLCI due to the Swine Flu Weekend Effect.

HAPPY TRADING !!!

Random Charts From Wall St 30 April 2009

Looking at these charts >>> what you think? Bearish? :P

RANDOM CHARTS >>> Crude Oil And DOW Futures

DJIA next target 8300

7187 BKOON

7187 BKOON >>> Taking On The 200 MAV

BKOON PAR Value 50 sen share

Weekly prices pushing for Bollinger Bandwidths expansion

Recommend Accumulate On Weakness

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 29日 / Composite Index 29/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 29日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周三一度下滑，惟精确的在200天移动平均线（MA）上获得扶持然后反弹，按日微扬1.76点。综指目前的支持水平落在959点胜图自动费氏线及200天移动平均线，阻力水平则是993点胜图自动费氏线及1000点的心理阻力水平. 布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄10%，表示综指目前依然没有摆脱技术调整的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度明显减少（-32.8%），不过还是保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示虽然综指出现技术调整而导致投资者离场观望，不过市场还是有足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压。无论如何，若综指要恢复上扬趋势的话，成交量必须再次增加，那综指才有望突破993及1000点的重要阻力水平。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）并未跌破30%水平，这表示综指短期还不至于进入短期下跌的趋势，只是属于技术调整格局中。若随机指标能够上扬突破70%水平的话，综指短期就有望恢复短期上扬的格局。

总的来说，综指技术调整后在200天MA止跌回弹，所以若综指能够继续处于在200天MA以上的话，综指有望继续的转强。综指接下来若能上扬突破布林中频带，那就有望摆脱技术调整格局，惟要到布林频带重新打开才能确认此上扬的讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 29/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI touches the 200-day MA and rebounded, closing 1.76 points higher at 967.46 points. Therefore, supports for the KLCI are still at 200-day MA and 959 Fibonacci Retracement, while the resistance are still at 993 FR and 1000 mark.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 10% on Wednesday, suggesting that the KLCI is still in its technical correction stage, until the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 32.8%, as the KLCI going through its technical correction. Nevertheless, should the KLCI attempt to resume its rally, volume has to increase significantly to confirm the bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic did not break below 30% level, suggesting that the KLCI is still having its technical correction but not yet turning bearish. If the Stochastic should return to above 70% level, the KLCI short term movement is expected to improve.

With the KLCI rebounding from the 200-day MA, this suggests that the KLCI has not turned bearish. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI to regain its strength, but to confirm any bullish movement, the Bollinger Bands Width has to re-expands with the KLCI firmly above the Bollinger Middle Band.

Looking to the Dow for hope

Using VIX Index to measure Swine Flu fears

After being hit by Swine Flu triggered bearish sessions in the last two days, world equities markets are now looking to the Dow for hope. And so far the Dow is not disappointing, at least not yet.

Dow Jones building a base at 8,000 : Short Term line cutting above mid term line?
The Dow Jones is currently building a base at the 8,000 level, and this base was strong enough to withstand the bearish effects of the Swine Flu when the Dow took just a small 0.7% negative hit in the last two days compared to the KLCI which regressed as much as 2.7%.

The Dow appears to be building a base/consolidating at the 8,000 level. After this base building phase ends, the Dow will be primed for a big move, either upwards or downwards. When will this big move happen? It will happen soon when the red short term line cuts above the blue mid term line. Considering the upwards trajectory of the red short term line, it seems more likely that the Dow will spring upwards in the short term instead of venturing downwards, barring any sudden and dramatic spikes in Swine Flu cases.
Measuring the Swine Flu “fear factor” with the VIX Index
The VIX Index, an important indicator of the “fear factor” in US markets, can be used to gauge the level of emotions of fear that is caused by the Swine Flu outbreak. Considering that the VIX index actually dipped 0.97% last night and still remains below the red short term line, it can be concluded that the level of fear in the US markets actually decreased last night. Apparently the Swine Flu outbreak has yet to reach levels where it would be triggering fear and panic among US traders and causing havoc in the US markets. The emotions of fear are still within control in the US markets, further supporting the likelihood that the Dow may be venturing higher from the 8,000 base. However, we still retain a sense of caution of the Swine Flu and will be tracking its spread closely.

Swine Flu Watch : Cases steadily increasing ; deaths confined to Mexico
So far, deaths remain confined to Mexico and have risen to 152, with suspected infections rising to 1995. The US has 65 confirmed cases but has yet to report fatalities. The next-highest country is New Zealand with 43 suspected cases, and countries including Spain, France, and South Korea have reported suspected infections too.

KLCI may be buoyed by US base building and neutral VIX Index
After being hit by a 2.7% correction in the last two days, the KLCI may get a break in the next few days with the Dow Jones’ positive base building at the 8,000 level and the neutral VIX Index. Bank Megara's possible announcement (6 pm) of an OPR cut might add to the possibility of a rebound in the KLCI. With the 970 support broken, we are looking to the dynamic 200 Day MAV support of 955 to halt the bear’s advance for now and possibly triggering a rebound in the KLCI.

KLCI : Hopeful in the short term but cautious of Swine Flu
We maintain our positive mid term outlook for the KLCI and are hopeful for a KLCI rebound due to the Dow Jones’ base building and the neutral VIX Index. However, we still retain a high sense of cautiousness and are monitoring the Swine Flu outbreak closely to detect any sudden spike in its severity.

TECHNICAL ANALTSIS Composite Index 28/04/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 4月 28日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 28/04/2009

On Tuesday, the KLCI lost 14.42 points to close at 965.70 points, breaking the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 973 Fibonacci Retracement support. Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI is still at 993 and 1000 psychological level, while the support is at 959 Fibonacci Retracement and the 200-day Moving Average line. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 20% on Tuesday, suggesting the KLCI is still having its technical correction. Nevertheless, since the 959 FR is very closed to the 200-day MA level, it is likely to be a reliable support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.9%. The decline of volume is typical during the consolidation of technical correction. This is because while the market is still taking a pause with uncertainties, most investors are staying on the sidelines. However, total market volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, which is an important ingredient if the KLCI were to maintain its uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% as well as 50% level, suggesting the short term bullishness has ended, and a technical correction stage for the KLCI. If the Stochastic should continue to decline and breaks below 30% level, the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be on the weaker side.

For now, the KLCI is still under its technical correction stage while the uptrend has not been violated. However, the fluctuation of the KLCI for this two days has been high, which is usually not the most healthy type of technical correction. Anyhow, if the KLCI should rebound from the 200-day MA, there is a good chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend; other wise, if the KLCI should break below the 200-day MA, it would have ended the current uptrend, and more downside risk for the KLCI can be expected.

综合指数 2009年 4月 28日

如图所示，综合指数周二进一步下跌，滑落14.42点以965.70点挂收，跌破了973点的胜图自动费氏支持线及布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态支持水平。综指当前的阻力水平依然是993点胜图自动费氏线及1000点的心理阻力水平，支持水平则是959点的胜图自动费氏线及200天移动平均线（MA）。

如图中箭头A所示，959点的胜图自动费氏线与200天移动平均线相当接近，所以支持力量倍增，所以有望成为综指的支持水平. 布林频带周二收窄20%，这表示综指目前继续处于调整的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二减少25.9%，不过还是高于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。成交量减少是综指在巩固或调整的典型现象，这是因为投资者在市场还没有明确指引时保持场外观望所致。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%及50%的水平，这表示综指的短期涨势结束，进入技术调整的格局。

综指目前处于技术调整中，不过这并不代表走势已转为跌势，这是因为综指在993至1000点虽然有相当大的阻力，不过还是守住200天MA的水平。总的来说，若综指短期内回弹到布林中频带以上的话，综指有望恢复短期的涨势，反之若综指进一步下跌并跌破200天MA的话，综指的牛市将不能形成，那综指涨势将结束，有形成跌势的风险。

KLCI >>> A Bearish Engulfer 27 April 2009

The bear hugged the KLCI for a good -12.56pts obviously assisted by the worries of a global swine flu epedemic.

The candlesticks formed a Bearish Engulfer pattern at the closing bell. Traded volume for the day was an impressive 2.11 billion shares - an increase of +1.4% over the previous day volume of 2.083 bn shares. Traders threw whatever they could out the window - ZL's exaggerated profit taking versi0n.The swine flu should be factored in as a one-off (unforseen circumstances) or market hazard with no regulated occurence pattern. From an optimistic viewpoit, it assisted to hasten the expected market correction by a few days at least. Better to be short and painful rather than a long drawn and deadly correction proceedings. Get it over with - quickly.

The daily slow stochastics indicator for KLCI flashed a buy signal in the
extended overbought zone (Chart 1),

but the weekly indicator clawed higher into the overbought region. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now extremely overbought with a reading of 81.92 as of last Friday, but the 14-week RSI showed a more robust reading of 61.1.


However, the KLCI daily and weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicators extended higher to suggest a stronger up-trend (Chart2).
The bullish trend is reinforced by expanding -DI and +DI lines on the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator, while the 14-week DMI strengthened further, implying an early stage bull market.


In A Nutshell
iven the convincing bullish breakout above the 200-day SMA resistance for the KLCI last week, it looks like market bulls are having a party (which the bears will most likely gatecrash) encouraged by strong follow-through buying momentum which peaked above the two billion
shares mark last Friday and this Monday. Nonetheless, due to the extremely overbought 14-day RSI and weekly slow stochastics momentum indicators, investors should be prepared for a more significant profit-taking correction this week. The bears WILL come dancing invited or not. However, the correction should be shallow and short-lived as buying momentum stays robust.
For this week, a decisive breakout above 1,000 will fuel upside towards 1,026 (Chart 3), which represent the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the selloff from 1,164 pivot high of 31 July 2008 to the 801 pivot low of 28 October 2008, with next significant resistance from 1,040.85, the 22 September 2008 pivot high. A stronger upside hurdle will come from 1,079, the 76.4%FR which mirrors the 38.2%FR of the major sell-down from the 1,525 all-time high of 14 January 2008.


On the downside, immediate support is revised upwards to 983, the 50%FR, with better supports coming in at 970, and then 950. The 7 January pivot high of 936 will act as a formidable support floor upon a profit-taking correction.

Sector-wise, gaming stocks Genting and Resorts World should continue last week’s strong run-up on hopes for a recovery in casino revenues, while lowerliner steel and construction stocks such as Ann Joo, Kinsteel, Leader Steel, Perwaja, MRCB, Ranhill, UEM Land and Zelan should also out-perform on hopes for a strong revival of demand for building materials and property development.

Bearish Engulfing Pattern

As implied by its name, a bearish engulfing pattern may provide an indication of a future bearish trend. This type of pattern usually accompanies an uptrend in a security, possibly signaling a peak or slowdown in its advancement. However, whenever a trader analyzes any candlestick pattern, it's important for him or her, before making any decisions, to consider the prices of the days that precede and follow the formation of the pattern.

5005 UNISEM >>> A Dark Cloud Cover

What Does Dark Cloud Cover Mean?

In candlestick charting, a pattern where a black candlestick follows a long white candlestick. It can be an indication of a reversal or future bearish trend.

Essentially, the large black candle is forming a "dark cloud" over the preceding bullish trend. The dark cloud must have a closing price that is:

1) within the price range of the previous day, but

2) below the mid-point between open and closing prices of the previous day.

ALL IS NOT LOSS - YET :p

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 4月 27日 / Composite Index 27/04/2009

综合指数 2009年 4月 27日
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周一再度上探993点的胜图自动费氏线，惟综指再度无功而返，下滑12.56点并回补周五的缺口，这表示综指出现比较大的技术调整。综指当前的阻力水平依然是993点胜图自动费氏线及1000天的心理阻力水平，支持水平则落在972胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄7%，这表示综指目前还是属于调整中的格局，所以布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）是综指当前的动态支持水平，瘦弱综指跌破布林中频带的话，那综指将有转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量稍微增加1.4%，使到成交量继续保持在40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上。由于综指下跌，周一偏高的成交量表示综指在993点及1000点有着强的阻力。无论如何，只要成交量能够维持在40天成交量平均值以上的话，那市场还是有足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）从100%跌破90%水平，这是综指短期出现技术调整的讯号，不过随机指标还是处于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期还未确认转弱，只是属于纯技术调整。换句话说，若随机指标跌破70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有进一步走低的趋势，直到随机指标重返70%以上为止。

综指周一出现的技术调整近期算是最大幅度的一次，这是因为综指处于短期超买的状态已久所致。若综指接下来跌破布林中频带的话，那综指将有进一步转弱的风险，惟趋势要等到布林频带再度打开才能被确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 27/04/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated 12.56 points, closing the Continuous Gap on Friday, this is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 993 Fibonacci Retracement and the 1000 mark, while the support is still at 972 FR.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 7%, suggesting that the KLCI is still in a consolidation or technical correction stage. Nevertheless, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T1 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.4%, with volume still higher above the 40-day VMA level. Since the KLCI ended lower on Monday, the increased of volume suggests that the KLCI resistance at 993 and the 1000 level is relatively stronger. Nevertheless, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level, the market is still well-participated.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 90% after touching 100%, which is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. Since the Stochastic is basically still above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned bearish yet.

The KLCI has its relatively biggest technical correction in recently weeks, this is because that the KLCI has been staying in over-bought condition for quiet sometimes. Nevertheless, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width is also suggesting that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the new movement shall only be revealed when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

0010 IRIS >>>> Accumulate

ACCUMULATE

4715 RESORTS WORLD

Should see more price actions after Friday's Window Gap opening

For investors with limited capital; going for RESORTS-CJ or CK will be a fine option. Highly recommended BUY ON WEAKNESS