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Monday, April 26, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 26/04/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 04月 26日

Composite Index 26/04/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rose 3.29 points to close at 1340.07 points, and the support for the KLCI remains unchanged, at 1334 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1347.61 followed by the 1354 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded slightly, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate technical outlook remains positive. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand, the bullish signal is likely to carry on.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 2.2%, and volume remains below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market sentiment as a whole is still weak, as investors confidence is relatively lower. Therefore, the KLCI does not have the most ideal bullish condition.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 70%, entering the short term bullish territory. If the Stochastic should should remain above 70%, the bullish short term movement of the KLCI shall carry on.

In conclusion, the KLCI is showing some signal of resuming its uptrend, but volume remains low. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand, the bullish biased movement of the KLCI shall continue.


综合指数 2010年 04月 26日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数微扬3.29点,以1340.07点闭市,综指当前的支持水平不变,仍然维持在1334点的费氏线,阻力水平则是1347.61点及1354点的费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)稍微打开,而综指则持续处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,所以综指继续维持转强的格局,接下来只要布林频带进一步打开,那综指将有望确认形成新一轮的的涨势。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量减低2.2%,所以成交量仍然未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这是投资者信心未完全恢复所致。一般上,若要综指稳健转强,成交量接下来必须持续增加,并且能达到40天平均值。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)上扬突破70%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势开始转强,以技术而言,只要随机指标持续的处于70%以上,那综指的短期走势将有望继续走高,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说,综指缓缓的出现转强的迹象,换句话说,综指酝酿的有可能是一个向上的趋势。接下来只要布林频带明显的打开,而综指又能继续维持在布林中频带以上的话,那综指将有望恢复上扬趋势,并短期内上探1347.61点的费氏阻力线。

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